浙商证券浙商早知道-20260311

Market Overview - On March 11, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.64%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 1.37%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.16%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.31%, and the Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.24% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on March 11 were coal (+2.53%), electric equipment (+2.43%), basic chemicals (+2.08%), utilities (+1.67%), and construction decoration (+1.63%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-1.98%), defense and military (-1.37%), media (-1.17%), electronics (-0.78%), and social services (-0.59%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on March 11 was 25,282.94 billion, with a net inflow of 3.448 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report discusses the strategy regarding the significant rise and subsequent fall of oil prices, questioning the future direction of the gold-oil ratio [2][5] - It is anticipated that the macro-friendliness of the gold-oil ratio may decline over the next six months, indicating a potential regression towards the mean [5] - The macro-friendliness of the gold-oil ratio is primarily influenced by factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates on US Treasury bonds, and the US manufacturing PMI [5] - The report incorporates a variable for US dollar credit to assess the impact of the volatility of Trump’s policies, the appointment of the Federal Reserve Chair, and the record-high US Treasury bond issuance on dollar credit [5]