2026年春季策略展望：重返真实

Group 1: Economic Trends - The U.S. service sector PMI has been declining, with consumer confidence at a ten-year low, indicating a potential recessionary environment[6] - AI adoption in U.S. enterprises is increasing, particularly among larger firms, leading to reduced labor costs and a slowdown in wage growth in affected sectors[9] - The core service CPI in the U.S. is experiencing deflationary effects, while commodity inflation is rebounding, suggesting a shift in inflation dynamics[9] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Investment demand in power and infrastructure driven by AI is growing, with electricity consumption growth outpacing GDP growth[3] - The U.S. is expected to see a shift towards hard assets, with a focus on commodities like oil, copper, and aluminum, as traditional sectors benefit from AI-driven demand[3] - Chinese manufacturing is undervalued compared to global peers, with potential for revaluation as the market shifts towards tangible assets[3] Group 3: Global Geopolitical Impact - The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is likely to disrupt oil supply temporarily, but a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz is deemed unlikely, which may stabilize oil prices over time[31] - The geopolitical landscape is reshaping global supply chains, with emerging markets becoming increasingly attractive for investment as developed economies stabilize[54] Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending is expected to stabilize as housing loan pressures ease and the negative wealth effect from falling home prices diminishes, with a focus on structural consumption opportunities[3] - The era of consumer "de-mystification" is leading to a shift in value perception, particularly in sectors like pharmaceuticals, tourism, and food products[3]