蔚来-SW：经营质量持续优化，25Q4 首次实现单季盈利-20260311

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][10][6] Core Views - The company achieved its first quarterly profit in Q4 2025, driven by increased sales volume and a higher proportion of high-priced models. Adjusted operating profit (Non-GAAP) reached 1.25 billion RMB in Q4 2025, exceeding the company's performance guidance [2][10] - The company is expected to expand its product matrix in 2026, with projected revenues of 130.91 billion RMB, 161.8 billion RMB, and 194.86 billion RMB for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively [10][4] Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 65.73 billion RMB in 2024 to 130.91 billion RMB in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 33% in 2025 and 50% in 2026 [4] - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, with losses narrowing from -22.66 billion RMB in 2024 to -3.4 billion RMB in 2026, and turning positive in 2027 with a profit of 1.09 billion RMB [4] - The company achieved a gross margin of 17.5% in Q4 2025, an increase of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by sales growth and product structure optimization [10][4] Market Performance - The current stock price is 38.14 HKD, with a market capitalization of 93.095 billion HKD and a 52-week price range of 24.50 to 61.20 HKD [6][7] - The company is expected to deliver between 80,000 to 83,000 new vehicles in Q1 2026, representing a year-on-year increase of 90.1% to 97.2% [10]