GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-03-11 14:05Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics industry, specifically for express delivery companies [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, leading to price recovery and a shift from chaotic price wars to service quality competition. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with regulatory support from the State Post Bureau [1][3]. - The "de-involution" policies have been integrated into the annual key tasks of the State Post Bureau, emphasizing the need for compliance and social security contributions for couriers, which will further strengthen the industry's pricing power [1][3]. - The market share is increasingly concentrating among leading express companies, with their management capabilities and network strengths becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to simultaneous increases in market share and profits [1][3]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review: Initial Decline Followed by Recovery - The express delivery market in 2025 experienced a trend of "initial decline followed by recovery," with intensified price competition in the first half of the year. A turning point occurred in July when regulatory measures against "involution" were introduced, leading to a nationwide price increase across 22 provinces by November [9][10]. 2026 Outlook: Continued De-involution and Market Share Differentiation - The "de-involution" trend is expected to deepen in 2026, with regulatory frameworks being established to ensure compliance and protect courier rights. This will create a more favorable competitive environment for compliant leading companies [16][17]. - The report highlights that the leading express companies are positioned for a "double hit" in terms of market share and profit growth due to their competitive advantages [16][41]. Early 2026 Industry Growth and Market Share Dynamics - In the first two months of 2026, the express delivery volume grew approximately 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of late 2025. The leading companies continued to show differentiated performance, with significant year-on-year growth in volume for companies like YTO Express and Shentong Express [26][31]. - The report indicates that the pricing for express services remains stable, with leading companies maintaining their market positions and profitability [31].