GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2026-03-11 14:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the logistics industry, specifically for express delivery companies [5]. Core Insights - The express delivery industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, leading to price recovery and a shift from chaotic price wars to service quality competition. This trend is expected to continue into 2026, with regulatory support from the State Post Bureau [1][3]. - The "de-involution" policies have been integrated into the annual key tasks of the State Post Bureau, emphasizing the need for compliance and social security contributions for couriers, which will further strengthen the industry's pricing power [3][16]. - The market share is increasingly concentrating among leading express companies, with their management capabilities and network strengths becoming more pronounced, potentially leading to simultaneous increases in market share and profits [3][16]. Summary by Sections 2025 Review - The express delivery market experienced a "first suppressed then rising" trend in 2025, with intensified price competition in the first half. A turning point occurred in July when the State Post Bureau called for stronger industry regulation, marking the start of the "de-involution" process [9][10]. - By November 2025, 22 provinces had raised express delivery prices, indicating a nationwide price recovery trend [9][10]. 2026 Outlook - The "de-involution" policies are expected to deepen in 2026, with a focus on regulatory enforcement and the protection of courier rights. This will create a more favorable competitive environment for compliant leading companies [16][20]. - The report highlights that the leading express companies are likely to experience a "double hit" in terms of market share and profit growth due to their competitive advantages [3][16]. Early 2026 Industry Performance - In the first two months of 2026, the express delivery volume grew approximately 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the growth rates of late 2025. This growth is attributed to the ongoing effects of the "de-involution" policies [3][26]. - Leading companies like YTO and Shentong have shown significant year-on-year growth in delivery volume, indicating their strengthened competitive position [31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading express companies such as Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, as they are expected to benefit from the ongoing "de-involution" and regulatory support [3][41].