地缘扰动持续，油脂油料波动较大

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural commodities: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating with an upward bias [1][5][6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating with an upward bias [7][8] - Corn: Oscillating with an upward bias [8][9] - Hogs: Oscillating with a downward bias [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11][12] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating with an upward bias [13] - Cotton: Oscillating with an upward bias [14] - Sugar: Oscillating [16][17] - Pulp: Oscillating with an upward bias [18][19] - Double - Coated Paper: Oscillating [19][21] - Logs: Oscillating [22] 2. Core Views - Geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East continue to impact the agricultural commodity market, leading to significant fluctuations in oils and fats, protein meal, and other products [1][5][7] - The supply and demand situation varies for different commodities, with some in a tight balance (e.g., corn) and others in a loose supply situation (e.g., hogs) [8][9][10] - The price trends of many commodities are closely related to factors such as crude oil prices, biodiesel policies, and geopolitical situations [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - Logic: Geopolitical issues in the Middle East affect market expectations, and the price trend is highly correlated with the situation. In terms of fundamentals, there are concerns about the supply efficiency of Brazilian soybeans, which may lead to a tight supply of soybean oil. Malaysian palm oil production and exports in February were lower than expected, and the inventory was higher. Rapeseed is expected to be concentrated for arrival and processing from March to May, and domestic rapeseed oil inventory is expected to gradually increase [1][5][6] - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are all expected to oscillate with an upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - buying strategy [1][5][6] Protein Meal - Logic: The March supply - demand report was uneventful, and market attention shifted to the impact of the Middle East conflict. Geopolitical factors and the expected growth in biodiesel demand are the main drivers. In China, the rising premiums of US and Brazilian soybeans, concerns about import costs and delayed arrivals have boosted market sentiment, with funds flowing in to drive up the price of soybean meal [7][8] - Outlook: Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate with an upward bias. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation [7][8] Corn - Logic: The domestic corn price shows mixed trends. The supply pressure is limited as farmers have less remaining grain, and downstream enterprises have a certain demand for replenishment. The current supply - demand situation is tight, and the industry is in a state of high turnover [8][9] - Outlook: Oscillating with an upward bias. In March, the increase in spot prices is expected to narrow, and the long - term trend is bullish [8][9] Hogs - Logic: In the short term, the supply pressure is high as the breeding end did not complete the slaughter plan in February, and the planned daily slaughter volume in March has increased. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, and the inventory and weight of hogs are increasing. In the long term, the process of capacity reduction is not smooth [10] - Outlook: Oscillating with a downward bias in the short term. The industry is advised to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [10] Natural Rubber - Logic: Affected by the positive commodity trading atmosphere, the price of natural rubber has increased. The short - term trading logic is related to the Middle East geopolitical situation. Although it has little impact on supply, it has a negative impact on downstream tire orders. The market sentiment is weakening, and there is a need for adjustment, but the decline is expected to be limited [11][12] - Outlook: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [11][12] Synthetic Rubber - Logic: Driven by the strong chemical industry atmosphere, BR has increased. The short - term trading logic has shifted to geopolitical factors. As long as crude oil remains strong, the market is likely to rise even though the fundamentals of BR are weak. The price of butadiene has increased sharply, which has supported the supply side [13] - Outlook: The market follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil continues to rise, the market will remain strong in the short term [13] Cotton - Logic: The increase in the price of Zhengzhou cotton may be due to capital rotation. The supply - demand situation of Chinese cotton in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a tight balance, and the commercial inventory is in the process of destocking. There is a possibility of a decrease in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2026, which provides a bullish driver. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high in the short term [14] - Outlook: Oscillating with an upward bias. It is recommended to consider long - term allocation on dips [14] Sugar - Logic: In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply. In the short term, the price is affected by the oil price fluctuations caused by the Middle East conflict. High oil prices may lead to a decrease in the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new season, which in turn affects the global sugar supply [16][17] - Outlook: Oscillating. The price range of the domestic market can be moderately widened to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [16][17] Pulp - Logic: The pulp market is still in a weak state, with weak current demand but a seasonal expectation of improvement. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, with the US dollar price of broad - leaf pulp being positive and the high overseas inventory of coniferous pulp being negative. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [18] - Outlook: Oscillating with an upward bias. It is recommended to consider long - term allocation at the low end of the range after the festival [18][19] Double - Coated Paper - Logic: The market has no clear driver in the short term, with supply pressure due to the resumption of some shutdown production lines and weak downstream demand. In the 3 - 4 month period, the market is expected to see both supply and demand increase, with prices rising first and then falling in the 3 - 5 month period [19][21] - Outlook: Oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range of 4000 - 4400 yuan/ton [19][21] Logs - Logic: The market has no clear fundamental driver. Geopolitical factors have increased the cost, driving up the spot and futures prices. However, the domestic demand has not shown strong resilience after the festival. The arrival of a large number of logs from March to April may put pressure on the price [22] - Outlook: Oscillating. It is recommended to operate within the range of 780 - 820 yuan/cubic meter for the short - term main contract [22]