国内商品期市收盘多数上涨，??属建材全部上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating of the previously recommended overweight stocks, including stock indices, non - ferrous metals, and precious metals, is downgraded to neutral. It is relatively recommended to allocate TS and TF [1]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Most domestic commodity futures markets closed higher, with non - metallic building materials rising across the board. Shipping futures led the gains, while energy products led the losses [1]. - For the expectation of US dollar monetary policy, it is important to determine the current stage of geopolitical conflicts, which affects the market's judgment on inflation and the economy. It is recommended to use the neutral scenario as the benchmark for asset allocation. In the short term, it is advisable to appropriately manage the positions of risk assets such as equities and commodities [1]. - After the release of the "Report", the market's policy expectation of the government's active policy support in the first half of the year will gradually converge, and the market will shift to the verification stage of actual data [1]. - Stock indices may enter a period of shock adjustment, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected by the expectation of tightened monetary conditions. Investors are advised to pay attention to geopolitical events and domestic economic data before re - evaluating asset cost - effectiveness and portfolio construction strategies [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Domestic Commodity Futures: Most domestic commodity futures closed higher. Shipping futures led the gains, with the container shipping index (European line) rising 7.15%. Non - metallic building materials all rose, with PVC up 5.63%. Chemical products mostly rose, with butadiene rubber up 5.51%. Oils and fats and oilseeds mostly rose, with soybean meal up 3.58%. Agricultural and sideline products mostly rose, with red dates up 2.12%. Black commodities mostly rose, with iron ore up 0.90%. Precious metals showed mixed performance, with Shanghai gold up 0.73%. Energy products led the losses, with crude oil down 9.61%. New energy materials mostly fell, with lithium carbonate down 5.14%. Base metals mostly fell, with Shanghai tin down 0.71% [1]. - Financial Market: The performance of financial market products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, foreign exchange, and interest rates showed different trends. For example, the CSI 300 futures rose 0.43% on the day, and the 2 - year treasury bond futures fell 0.01% [7]. - Industry Index: Different industries in the China Securities Industry Index showed different trends. For example, the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry rose 0.73% on the day, while the national defense and military industry fell 1.51% [8][9]. - Overseas Commodities: Overseas commodities such as energy, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and agricultural products also had different price changes. For example, NYMEX WTI crude oil fell 8.84% on the day, and COMEX gold rose 1.86% [10][11]. - Domestic Main Commodities: Domestic main commodities including shipping, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products showed various price movements. For example, the container shipping European line rose 7.51% on the day, and gold rose 0.2% [12][13][14]. 3.2 Asset Views - Stock Indices: Affected by the convergence of policy boost expectations and overseas events, stock indices may enter a shock adjustment period, and it is necessary to observe the actual situation of domestic economic data to form the next trend [1]. - Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals: Constrained by the unfalsifiable expectation of tightened monetary conditions, the performance of non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be affected from the perspective of financial attributes [1]. - TS and TF: Relatively recommended for allocation [1]. 3.3 Short - term Judgment of Each Variety - Financial: Stock index futures, stock index options, treasury bond futures, and precious metals are all expected to be in a shock state. The short - term judgment of gold and silver is affected by factors such as inflation expectations, US fundamental data, and Fed monetary policy [4]. - Shipping: The container shipping European line is expected to be in a shock - weak state, affected by geopolitical events, the passage volume of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the situation in the Middle East [4]. - Black Building Materials: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as policy issuance, production and shipment, and cost [4]. - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: Most non - ferrous metals and new materials are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as supply disturbances, policy changes, and demand expectations [4]. - Energy Chemicals: Most energy chemical products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, oil price fluctuations, and macro - level changes [4][5]. - Agriculture: Most agricultural products are expected to be in a shock state, affected by factors such as the situation in the Middle East, oil price fluctuations, and supply and demand [4][5].