五矿期货农产品早报-20260312

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, short - term Zheng sugar prices fluctuated due to crude oil price volatility. With the raw sugar price at a historical low and potential reduction in the sugar - cane ratio in Brazil's new season after April, it's not advisable to be overly bearish. In China, as sugar mills are gradually ending the crushing season, the pressure of increased production is relieved, and there may be a rebound. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. - For cotton, short - term Zheng cotton prices fluctuated due to crude oil price volatility. Focus on the downstream startup situation in March. If it is favorable, there is still room for Zheng cotton to rise. The strategy is to buy on dips [9]. - For protein meal, due to the impact of the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil price volatility led to significant fluctuations in protein meal prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [12]. - For oils, affected by the geopolitical crisis, short - term crude oil price increases drove up oil prices. Fundamentally, the vegetable oil inventories in major consumer countries such as China and India have declined to relatively low levels. It is bullish on oils in the medium term [16]. - For eggs, the production capacity is on a downward trend, but the reduction is slowing and less than expected. The short - term absolute supply is still high. The spot price is supported by short - term demand but lacks the power for continuous price increases. For the futures, it is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term contracts, and pay attention to the cost - side support for the far - term contracts [19]. - For pigs, considering the high weight and theoretical出栏 volume, the enthusiasm of secondary fattening is not high, and the support for the market is limited. The short - term spot price may remain weakly stable. For the futures, it is recommended to sell on rallies for the near - term contracts and wait and see for the far - term contracts [22]. Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - Market Information: As of February 28, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 24.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.62 million tons. The delivery volume of the March raw sugar contract was 808,000 tons. India's sugar net production (excluding ethanol) in the 2025/26 season was predicted to be 29.3 million tons, a decrease of 1.65 million tons from the second prediction but a year - on - year increase of 3.17 million tons. The estimated sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region in the 2026/27 season is expected to be 40.5 million tons, the same as the previous year. As of March 4, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 44, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.4939 million tons. Thailand's sugar production as of February 28, 2026, in the 2025/26 season was 8.49 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 130,000 tons. The global sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 181.29 million tons, 480,000 tons less than the previous prediction [4]. Cotton - Market Information: The global cotton production in the 2026/27 season is expected to decline by 4% to 24.8 million tons, while consumption is expected to remain stable at 25 million tons. From February 26 to March 5, 2026, the US current - year cotton export sales were 35,800 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.0865 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 163,900 tons. As of March 6, the spinning mill startup rate was 73.2%, an 8.6 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, and the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.21 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 330,000 tons. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is predicted to be 26.34 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons from the February prediction and 540,000 tons more than the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [6][8]. Protein Meal - Market Information: China's soybean imports in February 2026 were 5.976 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to February were 12.547 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%. The estimated soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 season is 178 million tons (AgRural) and 177.8 million tons (StoneX), both lower than the previous predictions. From February 19 to 26, 2026, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative exports were 36.03 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. As of March 6, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrivals were 13.92 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79 million tons. The global soybean production in the 2025/26 season is predicted to be 42.717 million tons, a decrease of 990,000 tons from the February prediction but an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from the February prediction and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year [11]. Oils - Market Information: Indonesia is considering restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in mid - year. In January 2026, Indonesia's palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 490,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 860,000 tons. In February 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.28 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 300,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons; exports were 1.13 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 330,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons; and inventory was 2.7 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 120,000 tons but a year - on - year increase of 1.19 million tons. From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil product exports were 581,000 tons (AmSpec) and 622,000 tons (ITS), both higher than the same period last month. As of the end of January, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.75 million tons, the same as the previous month but a year - on - year decrease of 430,000 tons. As of March 6, the domestic sample data of the three major oils inventory was 1.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons [14]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, egg prices in most areas were stable, with some showing slight fluctuations. The average price in the main production areas was 3.06 yuan per catty. The supply was stable, but the downstream digestion speed was slightly slow. It is expected that today's egg prices will mostly remain stable with some slight adjustments [18]. Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices were half stable and half falling. The average price in Henan decreased by 0.11 yuan to 10.2 yuan per kilogram. The enthusiasm of large - pig farmers for slaughter was high, but the market still had a large digestion pressure. The proportion of standard - pig slaughter was relatively small, and secondary fattening and frozen - product storage still supported the demand. It is expected that today's national pig prices will continue to decline slightly [21].