格林大华期货早盘提示-20260312

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term precious metals may fluctuate, and continuous attention should be paid to the evolution of the Iranian situation. The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 1.11% to $5183.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 4.11% to $85.91 per ounce. The Shanghai gold main contract fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan per gram, and the Shanghai silver main contract fell 2.8% to 21997 yuan per kilogram [1] - On Wednesday, the U.S. dollar index first fell and then rose, finally closing up 0.32% at 99.26; the yield of the benchmark 10 - year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.23%. ICE Brent crude oil closed up 6.64% to $93.63 per barrel [2] Important Information - On March 11, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 3.716 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 1077.281 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust decreased by 115.51 tons from the previous day, with the current holding at 15539.06 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in March is 0.6%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 99.4%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by April is 11.9%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.1%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points cumulatively is 0.1%. The probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 33.8% [1] - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in February increased by 2.4% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the same as the previous value. The U.S. core CPI in February increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and the same as the previous value; it increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations and lower than the previous value of 0.30% [1] - On March 11, the U.S. government launched a new round of 301 trade investigations on the industrial over - capacity of 16 major trading partners to re - impose tariff pressure [1] - U.S. Energy Secretary Wright issued a statement on the release of strategic petroleum reserves. The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to Trump's request to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil from their reserves to reduce energy prices. As part of this action, Trump authorized the Energy Department to release 172 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve starting next week, and it is expected to take about 120 days to complete the delivery [1] - Trump said that Iran has "nothing left to fight", and the war will end soon. The Iranian president put forward three necessary conditions for ending the war: recognizing Iran's legitimate rights, paying war compensation, and providing firm guarantees from the international community to prevent future acts of aggression. Three ships were reported to have been attacked in the Gulf waters on Wednesday. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard said its forces fired on ships that did not obey orders in the Gulf region [1] Market Logic - The conflict between the U.S., Israel and Iran continues, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment provides some support for gold prices. Affected by the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and the market's expectation of rising interest rates, COMEX gold had a slight correction on Wednesday, and COMEX silver had a larger decline [2] Trading Strategy - The market has high short - term uncertainty, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]