宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年3月12日）-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The impact of the USDA's March supply and demand report on the soybean meal market is limited, and the market focus has shifted to the rhythm of soybean imports. The short - term soybean meal futures price is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. The palm oil market has returned to rationality after the emotional premium was withdrawn, and its short - term trend is weak in the short - term and fluctuates in the medium - term [5][7] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - Price Trend: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][6] - Core Logic: The USDA's March supply and demand report has limited impact. Future attention should be paid to EPA biofuel blending requirements, the March 31 inventory and sowing report, and Sino - US trade agreements. In the domestic market, the uncertainty of soybean arrivals increases, affecting the oil mills' startup plans and soybean meal supply. The market focus has shifted from the expected increase in South American supply to the rhythm of imports, and negative news in logistics may cause short - term supply shortages and price pulses. The short - term soybean meal futures price is stronger than the external market [5] Palm Oil (P) - Price Trend: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - Core Logic: After the emotional premium in the oil market was withdrawn, it has gradually returned to rationality. The MPOB February report shows that Malaysian palm oil production declined more than expected but exports were less than expected, and the inventory decline was limited and still at a high level. In March, the Ramadan restricted production recovery, and Indonesia's simultaneous increase in special taxes and tariffs in March may open the export window for Malaysian palm oil. High - frequency export data has boosted market confidence. Palm oil is relatively resistant to decline under the background of weak crude oil and external oils, with a short - term weak trend [7] Soybean Oil (Y) - Price Trend: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6] - Core Logic: Influenced by energy attributes, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, imported soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6]