五矿期货早报|有色金属：有色金属日报-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East conflict has an impact on the prices of various non - ferrous metals. Although the short - term conflict has uncertainties, the probability of further escalation is low. Different metals have different price trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [2][3]. - For copper, short - term prices are expected to be volatile due to concerns about inflation and economic slowdown caused by the Middle - East conflict, and the tight supply of copper ore [3]. - For aluminum, supply is expected to remain tight, and domestic downstream resumption of work and production will reduce the pressure of ingot inventory accumulation, so the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - For lead, although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the current price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [9]. - For zinc, the domestic zinc industry remains weak, and the price may break through downward and show wide - range fluctuations during the conflict [11]. - For tin, the market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin prices, but considering the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase the high, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [13]. - For nickel, in the medium - term, the reduction of the RKAB quota policy in Indonesia will support the increase of the price center, and in the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate [16]. - For lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and potential green - power transformation expectations may be beneficial to its pricing [19]. - For alumina, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as mine production reduction and smelting - end supply contraction policies [22]. - For stainless steel, the market is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is expected to remain strong in the short - term due to the strong cost, the improvement of demand after the resumption of work, and the seasonal tightness of raw material supply [29]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Market Information - The price of copper fluctuated and declined. The LME 3M copper contract closed down 0.36% to $13,049/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 101,310 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 10,125 tons to 312,075 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.1 to 320,000 tons. The spot premium in East China and Guangdong increased, and the domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to less than 100 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 1,230 yuan/ton, remaining at a low level [2]. Strategy Viewpoint - Due to concerns about inflation and economic slowdown caused by the Middle - East conflict, and the tight supply of copper ore, the short - term copper price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,200 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M copper is $12,900 - 13,200/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - The price of aluminum was strong. The LME 3M aluminum contract closed up 1.68% to $3,457/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,315 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 2.7 to 688,000 tons, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.9 to 351,000 tons. The inventory of aluminum ingots in three places increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly. The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased, and the trading was weak. The spot discount of aluminum ingots in East China increased slightly to 130 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 0.2 to 450,000 tons [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply risk in the Middle - East has not been eliminated, and the supply is expected to remain tight. The domestic downstream is resuming work and production, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to increase, which will reduce the pressure of ingot inventory accumulation. The price of aluminum is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 25,800 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,380 - 3,520/ton [6]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index closed up 0.16% to 16,692 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S lead increased by 8.5 to $1,945.5/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,475 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 56,900 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 284,900 tons [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead ore inventory increased slightly, the lead concentrate TC increased slightly, and the raw material inventory of secondary lead decreased marginally. The smelting plant's operating rate decreased, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has not fully recovered. Although there is significant inventory accumulation at home and abroad, the current price is at the lower edge of the shock range, and the price is expected to stop falling and gradually recover [9]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.11% to 24,413 yuan/ton, and the LME 3S zinc decreased by 8 to $3,335/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,290 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 81,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 99,000 tons [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The domestic TC of zinc concentrate increased slightly, and the smelting profit improved slightly. The finished product inventory of smelting enterprises and the social inventory of zinc ingots increased significantly. The actual impact of the Iran conflict on zinc ore supply is small. The long - term probability of the Iran conflict increases, and the zinc price may break through downward and show wide - range fluctuations [11]. Tin Market Information - On March 11, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 392,740 yuan/ton, down 0.01% from the previous day. The supply of crude tin is tight, and the production of refined tin remains at a low level. The downstream demand has not been effectively reflected, and the enterprises mainly consume their own inventory [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the context of macro - easing and the general price increase in the semiconductor industry, the market has a strong sentiment of going long on tin prices, but considering the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase the high. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - On March 11, the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 137,160 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day. The spot premium of each brand remained stable. The price of nickel ore remained unchanged, and the price of nickel iron continued to rise [15]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the medium - term, the reduction of the RKAB quota policy in Indonesia will support the increase of the price center. In the short - term, the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the short - term Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the reference range for the LME 3M nickel contract is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 158,287 yuan, down 0.44% from the previous day. The LC2605 contract closed at 155,040 yuan, down 4.88% from the previous day [18]. Strategy Viewpoint - Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the futures position is at a relatively low level, so the price increase is under pressure. The lithium price may fluctuate in the short - term. The potential green - power transformation expectation may be beneficial to its pricing. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 146,000 - 167,000 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina Market Information - On March 11, the alumina index rose 1.07% to 2,882 yuan/ton. The position of unilateral trading decreased by 0.09 to 451,400 hands. The Shandong spot price was 2,625 yuan/ton, with a discount of 244 yuan/ton to the main contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was $304/ton, and the import profit and loss was 18 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.84 to 345,600 tons [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start drive the reduction of the inventory accumulation amplitude. The supply of the ore end is in surplus, and the high registration volume of warehouse receipts due to the premium on the disk suppresses the upward movement of the disk price. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and the futures price may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to potential driving factors such as mine production reduction in Guinea and smelting - end supply contraction policies. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,215 yuan/ton, down 0.07%. The position increased by 2,521 to 163,000 hands. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets remained unchanged. The raw material prices remained stable. The futures inventory decreased by 102 to 52,013 tons, and the social inventory decreased to 1,094,800 tons, a decrease of 2.19% [24][25]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market procurement atmosphere has improved, but the actual purchase volume of downstream users is still small. The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an upward - fluctuating pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The price of cast aluminum alloy rose. The AD2604 main contract closed up 0.87% to 23,885 yuan/ton. The position of the weighted contract increased to 21,400 hands, and the trading volume was 12,600 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.11 to 55,900 tons. The price of domestic mainstream ADC12 increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the import price also increased. The inventory of three - place aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.01 to 36,200 tons [28]. Strategy Viewpoint - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, the demand is expected to continue to improve after the resumption of work, and the supply - side disturbance and the seasonal tightness of raw material supply will make the short - term price remain strong [29].