金信期货日刊-20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran disrupting Middle - East crude oil and raw material exports, Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure. The mid - term focus is on three variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium, supply - demand fundamentals, and policy implementation rhythm. It is recommended to trade within a range and avoid unilateral chasing [3][4]. - The stock market shows a pattern of strong index and weak stocks today, with little change in trading volume compared to yesterday. The small - cycle is at a high level, and there is a need for adjustment in the early trading tomorrow. The early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [7]. - Gold's daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After a rally last night, it fell back again, and a high - shorting strategy should be adopted [9]. - For iron ore, although there is a supply surplus in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity sentiment is high recently, and a bullish view can be maintained [11][12]. - For glass, in the seasonal off - season, the factory inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [14][15]. - For methanol, affected by Middle - East geopolitical events, supply has decreased significantly, and the port inventory has decreased by 13.07 tons this week [19]. - For pulp, most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, and the port inventory is under pressure. There is an expectation of price increase for cultural paper and white - card paper, which may support pulp prices [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Due to the war between the US, Israel and Iran, Asian refineries and petrochemical enterprises are cutting production capacity and declaring force majeure. Three operators are reducing production loads to maintain factory operation. Restarting a steam cracking unit takes up to two weeks, and factories usually do not stock more than a month's worth of raw materials [3]. - Mid - term focus variables: the sustainability of geopolitical risk premium (the 8 - 10 dollars/barrel premium will fade quickly if the strait passage resumes), supply - demand fundamentals (OPEC+ production cuts and slow growth of US shale oil form a tight balance, but global demand recovery is weak), and policy implementation rhythm (US measures to stabilize oil prices and OPEC+ production adjustments will determine the volatility center). It is recommended to trade within a range, with Brent in the 80 - 100 dollars/barrel range and SC crude oil in the 600 - 800 yuan/barrel range, and set stop - losses and avoid overnight positions [4]. Stock Market - The market shows a pattern of strong index and weak stocks today, with little change in trading volume compared to yesterday. The small - cycle is at a high level, and there is a need for adjustment in the early trading tomorrow. The early - morning adjustment is a good low - buying opportunity [7]. Gold - Gold's daily - level red - green line turns bearish. After a rally last night, it fell back again, and a high - shorting strategy should be adopted [9]. Iron Ore - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is expected to be loose as Australian and Brazilian shipments are normal and mines are in the capacity - release cycle. The terminal demand needs time to start, and attention should be paid to policy and sentiment. Recently, the commodity sentiment is high, and a bullish view can be maintained [11][12]. Glass - In the seasonal off - season, the daily melting volume changes little, and the factory inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work of deep - processing enterprises after the festival. In the short - term, it is more affected by the overall commodity sentiment, and it is recommended to view it as a wide - range oscillation [14][15]. Methanol - Iran is the world's second - largest methanol producer and exporter, and the recent Middle - East geopolitical events have caused significant fluctuations in methanol. Supply has decreased significantly, and the port inventory has decreased by 13.07 tons this week [19]. Pulp - Most pulp and paper equipment has returned to normal production, and individual equipment is under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is continuously accumulating and under pressure. The downstream paper mills' operating load is expected to continue to increase, and the paper enterprises' gross profit is low. There is an expectation of price increase for cultural paper and white - card paper, which may support pulp prices [23].