贵金属：贵金属日报2026-03-12-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. After the short - term boost of geopolitics to gold and silver prices, the sharp rise in oil prices under the background of the US - Iran war triggers market inflation expectations and makes the market re - evaluate the US economy's ability to withstand energy shocks. In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. The stickiness of the service end is the core resistance to the decline of inflation, while the slowdown of housing inflation and the continuation of commodity deflation provide key impetus for long - term inflation cooling. In the context of rising energy prices, it may re - intensify price upward pressure, which will make the Fed cautious about the interest - rate cut rhythm, and it is difficult to see rapid easing policy signals in the short term, suppressing precious metal prices. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold fell 0.37% to 1151.48 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 1.88% to 21997.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.07% to 5175.30 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.06% to 85.48 US dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.21%, and the US dollar index was reported at 99.37 [2] - In February 2026, the US CPI and core CPI were 2.4% and 2.5% respectively, remaining flat for two consecutive months. Before the escalation of the current geopolitical conflict, the US inflation pressure had shown significant signs of relief. The CPI had a mild month - on - month increase of 0.3%, the core CPI month - on - month was also stable at 0.2%, and the year - on - year increase of core inflation remained at a near - five - year low [2] - The spokesman of the Central Command of Khatam al - Anbiya in Iran severely warned that Iran is fully capable of blocking the Strait of Hormuz and clearly stated that "no liter of oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz under conditions favorable to the US and its allies." To deal with the violent shock in the energy market and relieve the supply tension, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced that it would release 400 million barrels of emergency oil reserves into the market. Meanwhile, the Trump administration plans to launch multiple trade investigations on Wednesday local time according to Article 301 of the 1974 Trade Act through the US Trade Representative's Office to pave the way for imposing new tariffs, covering issues such as digital service tax and exchange - rate manipulation [3] 3.2 Strategy View - The current gold price maintains a narrow - range oscillation, showing a sideways consolidation trend. Geopolitics provides short - term support for gold and silver prices, and the sharp rise in oil prices under the US - Iran war background triggers inflation expectations. The US inflation was in a moderate decline channel before the Middle East conflict, but the stickiness of the service end slows down the decline rhythm. Rising energy prices may re - intensify price upward pressure, making the Fed cautious about interest - rate cuts and suppressing precious metal prices in the short term. The strategy is to be cautiously bearish, with the reference operating range of the main Shanghai gold contract being 1100 - 1200 yuan/gram and that of the main Shanghai silver contract being 20500 - 23000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Gold and Silver Data - Gold: COMEX gold's open interest decreased by 2.47% to 40.98 million lots; LBMA gold's closing price rose 2.43% to 5209.70 US dollars/ounce; SHFE gold's open interest increased by 2.72% to 30.57 million lots, and the precipitation funds increased by 2.90% to 56.346 billion yuan; AuT + D's trading volume decreased by 12.13% to 40.35 tons, and the open interest decreased by 0.38% to 243.01 tons [8] - Silver: COMEX silver's open interest decreased by 9.67% to 11.33 million lots; LBMA silver's closing price rose 6.09% to 88.53 US dollars/ounce; SHFE silver's open interest decreased by 0.75% to 48.91 million lots, and the precipitation funds decreased by 2.94% to 29.393 billion yuan; AgT + D's trading volume decreased by 43.61% to 195.49 tons, and the open interest decreased by 1.11% to 2860.266 tons [8] 3.4 ETF Holdings - Gold: The holdings of iShare US remained unchanged at 494.04 tons; the holdings of GBS UK remained unchanged at 30.59 tons; the holdings of PHAU UK decreased by 0.10% to 54.41 tons; the holdings of GOLD UK increased by 0.12% to 29.96 tons; the holdings of SGBS Switzerland remained unchanged at 35.20 tons [64] - Silver: The closing price of silver ETFs fell 2.72% to 77.91 US dollars; the holdings of SLV US decreased by 0.74% to 15539.06 tons, and the precipitation funds decreased by 3.31% to 4.3073 billion US dollars; the trading volume decreased by 20.87% to 29.3077 million shares; the holdings of ETPMAG Australia remained unchanged at 487.41 tons; the holdings of PSLV Canada remained unchanged at 6747.37 tons; the holdings of CEF Canada remained unchanged at 1583.02 tons [64]