国新国证期货早报-20260312

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the market performance of various futures varieties on March 11, 2026, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, sugar, rubber, palm oil, soybean meal, live pigs, copper, cotton, iron ore, asphalt, logs, steel, alumina, and aluminum. It analyzes the influencing factors of each variety and provides corresponding market outlooks and suggestions [1][2][3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On March 11, A - share three major indexes rose collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 4133.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to 14465.41 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.31% to 3349.53 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2528.5 billion yuan, an increase of 111.4 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index remained strong on March 11, closing at 4704.50, a month - on - month increase of 29.74 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On March 11, the coke weighted index fluctuated and closed at 1731.7, a month - on - month increase of 14.6. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated in the range, closing at 1172.3 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 10.7 [2][3]. - For coke, the operating load of coking enterprises decreased, the inventory in the factory continued to accumulate, and the profit per ton of coke turned positive. On the demand side, affected by the Two Sessions, the start - up of steel mills and the output of molten iron decreased. For coking coal, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remained at a high level, and the start - up of mines and coal washing plants increased. The start - up of downstream coking enterprises decreased slightly, the coking coal inventory continued to decline, the coke inventory continued to accumulate, and the profit per ton of coke turned positive [4]. Sugar - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices, the US sugar oscillated and closed lower on Tuesday. Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar, the downward adjustment of spot quotes, and the expected firmness of crude oil prices, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, the contract continued to oscillate and closed slightly higher. The European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) pointed out that the El Niño phenomenon may form in the equator and the eastern Pacific in May and strengthen in August. The probability of a super El Niño phenomenon is 22%, the probability of a "strong" El Niño phenomenon is 80%, and the probability of a "medium - intensity" El Niño phenomenon is as high as 98% [4]. Rubber - The Shanghai rubber fluctuated slightly and showed an oscillating trend, closing slightly higher on Wednesday. At night, it continued to oscillate and closed slightly higher. According to customs data, from January to February 2026, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) totaled 1.404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. In February alone, the import volume was 601,000 tons [4]. Palm Oil - On March 11, the palm oil futures continued to oscillate at a high level, with the price running within the previous trading day's price range. By the afternoon close, the main contract P2605 of palm oil closed with a positive line with long upper and lower shadows. The highest price of the day was 9562, the lowest price was 9330, and the closing price was 9526, a 0.68% increase from the previous trading day. According to data from the Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers' Association (SPPOMA), from March 1 - 10, 2026, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 4.29% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% month - on - month, and the output increased by 1.55% month - on - month [4][5]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on March 11, the main contract of CBOT soybeans closed at 1214.25 cents per bushel, a 0.91% increase. The US Department of Agriculture maintained its forecast for the end - of - season supply of US soybeans in the February supply and demand report, slightly lowered the global supply outlook, but still predicted the Brazilian soybean output at 180 million tons and lowered the Argentine soybean output forecast from 4.85 million tons last month to 4.8 million tons. More than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested, and the export capacity will increase rapidly. In the domestic market, on March 11, the main M2605 contract of soybean meal closed at 3068 yuan per ton, a 3.2% increase. As of last weekend, the total domestic soybean meal inventory was 767,000 tons, an increase of 56,600 tons week - on - week. The Middle East conflict has led to blocked international shipping, increased logistics costs, rising shipping freight and costs of imported soybeans in China, which support the domestic soybean meal price. It is recommended to focus on the weather changes in South America, the progress of the Middle East situation, and the rhythm of soybean arrivals [5]. Live Pigs - On March 11, the main contract LH2605 of live pigs closed at 11,170 yuan per ton, a 0.09% decrease. On the supply side, the current supply is relatively loose. The increase in the slaughter of large pigs previously held back and the increase in the slaughter of large - scale farms, combined with the high frozen product inventory, result in sufficient market supply. The inventory of sows capable of reproduction is still at a high level, the production capacity base is large, and combined with the improvement of breeding efficiency, the effective supply continues to be loose. On the demand side, after the Spring Festival, pork consumption enters the off - season, the sales of downstream white - striped pork are weak, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is low, and the demand - side carrying capacity is insufficient, which has limited support for pig prices. Overall, the live pig market is still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. It is recommended to focus on the progress of sows capable of reproduction reduction, the slaughter rhythm of large - scale pig enterprises, and the recovery of terminal consumption [5]. Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 101,150 yuan per ton, opening high and closing low, remaining the same as the previous trading day's settlement price. It oscillated narrowly around 101,000 - 101,930 yuan per ton, holding the 100,000 - yuan integer mark and showing strong resistance to decline. The trading volume was 75,900 lots, and the open interest was 193,000. The sentiment of funds tended to be stable. The spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was 101,320 yuan per ton, a premium of 170 yuan per ton over the main futures price. The sentiment of holders to hold up prices was strong, and downstream rigid - demand purchases supported the price. The average spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 101,630 yuan per ton, and the spot discount continued to narrow, with the willingness to receive goods increasing. The SHFE copper inventory was 425,100 tons, an increase of 33,616 tons from the previous period, showing a trend of inventory accumulation; the warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 319,700 tons, with an increase of 1,759 tons yesterday, and the available circulating supply was tight. The LME copper inventory was 302,000 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons from the previous period. In terms of the supply - demand pattern, the resumption of production in the smelting end is advancing, and the output in March is expected to reach a record high; the resumption of work in the downstream is marginally strengthening, and the expected "Golden March and Silver April" consumption season boosts demand. It is necessary to focus on the replenishment sentiment of the downstream and the impact of macro data [5]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 15,490 yuan per ton. The cotton inventory increased by 202 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises have fully resumed work after the Spring Festival and entered the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" [5]. Iron Ore - On March 11, the main contract 2605 of iron ore oscillated and closed up, with a 0.9% increase and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The iron ore shipments in this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the arrivals increased, the port inventory was at a historical high, and recently affected by environmental protection, production restriction, and emission reduction, the molten iron output decreased. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [5]. Asphalt - On March 11, the main contract 2604 of asphalt oscillated and rose, with a 1.07% increase and a closing price of 3874 yuan. As refineries gradually resume production, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate has increased month - on - month, and the refinery shipments have also increased month - on - month. Recently, the geopolitical conflict has led to intensified price fluctuations at the cost end, and the short - term asphalt price may follow the oil price [6]. Logs - The main contract 2605 of logs opened at 790 on Wednesday, with a minimum of 785, a maximum of 794.5, and a closing price of 790, with a daily reduction of 580 lots. On March 11, the spot market price of logs: the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 770 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, the same as the previous day. According to customs data, the import of logs from January to February decreased by 11.2% year - on - year. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the support of spot - end prices, import data, shipping costs, inventory changes, and macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On March 11, rb2605 closed at 3115 yuan per ton, and hc2605 closed at 3269 yuan per ton. In March, due to the relatively slow resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival, the recovery of steel demand is moderate. At the same time, the sharp fluctuations in international energy prices have a certain impact on the domestic raw fuel market. Since the domestic coking coal resources are generally sufficient, the coking coal market has been oscillating recently. Affected by the increase in shipping freight and the contraction of the supply side, the iron ore price has been oscillating strongly this week, and the cost has a certain support for the steel price. In the short term, the steel price may continue to oscillate [6]. Alumina - On March 11, ao2605 closed at 2869 yuan per ton. In China, although some roasting production capacities in Guizhou have failed and reduced production, and the sharp rise in caustic soda prices has pushed up costs, driving the futures to rise in the short term, the overall operating rate remains at a high level, and new production capacities such as Fangchenggang and Guangtou are about to be released, with a strong expectation of supply increase. After the Spring Festival, the logistics recovery and the improvement of shipping efficiency have promoted the continuous accumulation of raw material inventories in stations, delivery warehouses, and aluminum plants. This week, imported and domestic trade ships at northern ports have arrived in a concentrated manner, and the port inventory has increased significantly, highlighting the pressure of visible inventory. In the现货 market, downstream electrolytic aluminum plants adhere to on - demand procurement, holders' quotes remain stable, the market liquidity is average, and the trading atmosphere is dull [6]. Aluminum - On March 11, al2604 closed at 25,215 yuan per ton. In China, an important meeting was held, and the Ministry of Finance stated that fiscal policy will continue to adhere to a more proactive tone, and the market is concerned about subsequent guidance. On the fundamental supply side, the operation is stable, the ratio of molten aluminum is relatively low, the backlogged and in - transit supplies continue to be delivered, the social inventory pressure remains high, and the warehousing rhythm slows down. On the demand side, there is a strong fear of high prices, the rebound of aluminum prices suppresses demand, the downstream start - up recovery is limited, and the support for the spot is limited [6].