宁证期货今日早评-20260312

Group 1: Iron Ore - Latest overseas shipments are gradually recovering, while domestic arrivals have slightly decreased. Steel mill demand is average, and port inventories are rising. The market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment, and the disk is expected to continue a strong - side oscillation [1] Group 2: Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash is slowly rising. Production has decreased slightly, and inventory has increased. The float glass market has stable operation, but downstream demand is tepid. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Group 3: Coking Coal - Coal mine复产 is restricted, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is still pressure on the coking coal fundamentals. The disk price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [4] Group 4: Rebar - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work and production is slow, and steel demand recovers moderately. Inventory is expected to increase this week, and steel prices face upward pressure. Cost provides some support, and steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [4] Group 5: Live Pigs - Pig prices are stable and weak. There is still pressure on the supply side, and demand is poor. Although there is more inquiry for second - fattening, actual entry is limited. In the short term, prices will continue to adjust weakly. Feed cost supports prices, and in the medium - long term, futures prices have limited downward space [5] Group 6: Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil exports increased significantly in early March. Crude oil price increases provide cost support. However, domestic inventory pressure is high, and sales are poor. Palm oil is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [5] Group 7: Soybean Meal - The price of domestic soybean meal has increased significantly. The lower limit of the futures contract is strongly supported by high - priced US soybeans and rising shipping costs. Although the oil mill inventory has recovered, downstream inventory is sufficient, suppressing the upward space. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [6] Group 8: Copper - The threat of a strike at Glencore's Australian copper refinery may affect short - term copper supply. Rising oil prices and a strong US dollar put pressure on copper prices. High inventory suppresses prices, and copper prices are expected to oscillate before the inventory inflection point [7] Group 9: Cast Aluminum Alloy - In February, automobile production and sales decreased significantly due to the Spring Festival. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and shows strong performance, but volatility should be watched [7] Group 10: Methanol - Domestic methanol production is at a high level. Port inventory has decreased significantly, and downstream demand has gradually recovered. The spot market is average, and methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] Group 11: PVC - PVC supply is abundant, and downstream demand is improving. Inventory may decrease. Rising crude oil prices increase the cost of ethylene - based PVC. The market is expected to oscillate after price increases [9] Group 12: Lead - A lead - acid battery company is building a sodium - ion battery project, which poses a long - term threat to lead demand. However, it has no short - term impact. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range [10][11] Group 13: Crude Oil - OPEC's oil production increased in February. Global oil demand is expected to grow in 2026 and 2027. US crude oil inventory increased, and production decreased slightly. Tensions in the Middle East increase supply concerns. The release of strategic reserves can only ease price increases, and oil prices still have support [12] Group 14: Short - Fiber - Short - fiber processing fees are low, providing support for prices. However, rising raw material costs and risk - aversion sentiment slow down the resumption of work. The supply - demand driving force is average, and prices are expected to be strong due to PX and crude oil [13] Group 15: Natural Rubber - Overseas rubber production areas are in the off - season. Chinese rubber inventory is accumulating. Downstream demand shows different performances in full - steel and semi - steel tires. The 05 contract is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [14] Group 16: Thirty - Year Treasury Bonds - After the government work meetings, incremental policies may be in the works. The bond market is expected to oscillate bearishly, and the key support level needs guidance from the Politburo meeting in April [15] Group 17: Gold - The war situation is still stalemate, and there is a risk of new tariffs. Inflation data is weak, and the prospect of interest rate cuts is uncertain. Gold has limited downward space in the short term and is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium term [15] Group 18: Palladium - US inflation data is in line with expectations, but the impact of the Iran situation on oil prices is not reflected. The Fed's interest - rate cut decision needs more data. Palladium is expected to follow the fluctuation rhythm of silver in the medium term [16]