多晶硅：供需偏弱：工业硅：关注库存变化

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, highlighting the need to monitor inventory changes in industrial silicon and indicating a weak supply - demand situation for polysilicon [1][2] - The trend strength for both industrial silicon and polysilicon is neutral, with a value of 0 [4] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For industrial silicon, the Si2605 closing price is 8,620 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan compared to T - 1. The volume is 122,488 hands, a decrease of 60,018 hands. The open interest is 248,864 hands, an increase of 4,910 hands. For polysilicon, the PS2605 closing price is 42,590 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan. The volume is 4,663 hands, a decrease of 2,146 hands, and the open interest is 34,909 hands, a decrease of 104 hands [2] - Basis and Price: Industrial silicon has different spot premium/discounts for different grades. The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1. The price of Yunnan Si4210 is 9,900 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The price of polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 47,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,600 yuan [2] - Profit: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) is - 2,511.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) is - 5,391 yuan/ton. The profit of polysilicon enterprises is 2.9 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.2 yuan [2] - Inventory: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 55.3 million tons, a decrease of 0.7 million tons compared to T - 5. The enterprise inventory is 19.6 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons. The industry inventory (social + enterprise) is 74.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.37 million tons. The polysilicon factory inventory is 34.8 million tons, an increase of 0.4 million tons compared to T - 5 [2] - Raw Material Cost: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions have different changes. For example, the price of Yangzi coke is 1,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan compared to T - 5 [2] - Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry: The prices of products such as silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA have different changes. For example, the price of N - type 210mm silicon wafers is 1.35 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.02 yuan [2] - Profit in Other Industries: The profit of DMC enterprises is 1,843 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 70 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Sydney - based photovoltaic enterprise Stellar PV plans to build a 2GW polysilicon ingot and silicon wafer manufacturing plant in Queensland, Australia. The project has obtained the "Major Project Qualification" from the Australian government, with a target of starting production by the end of 2028. The total investment is about 400 million Australian dollars (equivalent to 281 million US dollars) [3][4]