IEA释放?油战略储备油价震荡，化?的供应减量仍在持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - With more refineries in China reducing their operating rates, more petrochemical companies declaring force majeure, and more Middle - East refineries shutting down due to drone attacks, the supply reduction of the chemical industry is a fact. Even if the geopolitical situation eases, damaged refineries won't start immediately, and shut - down facilities need time to restart. The chemical industry may outperform crude oil futures prices later [2]. - Crude oil will lead the chemical industry to maintain a strong and volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - View: The release of strategic petroleum reserves cannot change the tight supply expectation, and oil prices will remain strong. - Main Logic: The IEA's release of strategic petroleum reserves may not change the tight supply pattern caused by the blocked passage of the Strait of Hormuz. If the situation eases, oil prices may fall but won't return to pre - conflict levels in the short term. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish before the situation becomes clearer [7]. - Outlook: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.2 Asphalt - View: The asphalt - fuel oil price spread will widen. - Main Logic: The high - level shock of crude oil, the expected decline in asphalt refinery operating rates due to the deterioration of refining profits, the high - growth in Hainan's asphalt production, the accumulation of asphalt inventory, and the relatively undervalued asphalt futures compared to fuel oil all contribute to the expected widening of the spread. - Outlook: Volatile, with the absolute price of asphalt overvalued and the medium - to - long - term valuation expected to decline [8]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil has fallen from its high level. - Main Logic: The geopolitical situation in Iran affects fuel oil exports and natural gas supply. In the long term, the substitution of fuel oil for power generation by natural gas and photovoltaics is a negative factor [9]. - Outlook: Volatile. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - Main Logic: It follows the decline of crude oil. It faces negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. However, its export tax - rebate advantage and the transfer of the "reduce oil and increase chemicals" pressure may support it [10]. - Outlook: Volatile. 3.1.5 PX - View: Cost increase has escalated into a real - supply shock, and many refineries in the Asia - Pacific region are under force majeure. - Main Logic: Due to the tense geopolitical situation, raw - material costs remain high. PX supply is expected to shrink significantly in the second - quarter maintenance period, and the unplanned losses exacerbate the supply tightness [12]. - Outlook: In the short term, the PX price will be volatile and bullish under cost support and real - supply shock. In the medium term, the logic of buying on dips remains. 3.1.6 PTA - View: The volatility of upstream costs has increased, and the PTA basis has remained relatively stable. - Main Logic: The sharp rise in upstream raw materials has pushed up the cost of PTA, and the spot price has risen significantly due to the supply - cut sentiment. In the short term, PTA is expected to be bullish driven by cost and market sentiment [13]. - Outlook: Expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - View: Driven by crude oil and commodity sentiment, pure benzene fluctuates. - Main Logic: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. On the fundamental side, some supply enterprises may reduce production, while the downstream industry's profits have improved, and the operating rate has increased [14][16]. - Outlook: Volatile. 3.1.8 Styrene - View: Affected by device maintenance and crude - oil fluctuations, styrene fluctuates. - Main Logic: There is an expectation of geopolitical easing, and international oil prices have fallen. Supply may be reduced due to device maintenance and production cuts, while exports have increased. The market is supported by replenishment after the price decline [17]. - Outlook: Volatile. 3.1.9 MEG - View: The reduction in oil - based device operating rates is gradually emerging, and supply is expected to shrink significantly. - Main Logic: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has affected the supply of raw materials, leading to a decline in the operating rate of domestic ethylene - cracking MEG enterprises. The reduction in overseas imports and domestic oil - based device production cannot be fully compensated by the delay in coal - chemical device maintenance [19]. - Outlook: Volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - View: Upstream raw materials are facing a real - supply shock. - Main Logic: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has increased significantly. Downstream customers have stocked up during the previous price increase and are now waiting for the industrial chain to recover [20]. - Outlook: The short - fiber price will follow the upstream trend and remain volatile and bullish in the short term. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chip - View: The supply contraction of upstream raw materials has triggered market enthusiasm. - Main Logic: The sharp rise in upstream futures has strongly driven up the price of polyester bottle chips, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. The current supply - demand situation is tight, and the overall fundamentals are good [22]. - Outlook: The absolute price will follow the raw - material trend, and the support for processing fees will increase. 3.1.12 Methanol - View: Due to the continuous geopolitical conflict, methanol fluctuates within a range. - Main Logic: The methanol futures price is volatile and bullish. The inventory of production enterprises and ports has decreased, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The geopolitical situation still affects the import side [25][26]. - Outlook: Volatile. 3.1.13 Urea - View: Enterprises have significantly reduced their inventory, and urea fluctuates and consolidates. - Main Logic: The daily production of the urea industry is stable at a high level. Agricultural demand still exists in some regions, and industrial demand is gradually recovering. The inventory pressure of enterprises has weakened, which provides support for the market [27]. - Outlook: Volatile. 3.1.14 PE - View: There is an expectation of a decline in refinery operating rates, and PE fluctuates. - Main Logic: The oil price is volatile. If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously affected, PE imports may decrease. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market is still volatile, and the expected decline in refinery operating rates supports the near - term contracts [30]. - Outlook: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.15 PP - View: The number of maintenance operations has increased, and PP fluctuates. - Main Logic: The oil price is volatile. The direct impact on PP imports from the Persian Gulf is limited. The profits of oil - based and PDH refineries are under pressure, and the overall operating rate is low [31]. - Outlook: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.16 PL - View: There is an expectation of a decline in oil - based refinery operating rates, and PL fluctuates. - Main Logic: The oil price fluctuates widely. The spot market has become more rational, and the downstream is waiting and observing [32]. - Outlook: Volatile in the short term. 3.1.17 PVC - View: Upstream production cuts are increasing, and PVC is cautiously bullish. - Main Logic: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - disruption expectations in the energy - chemical industry. Upstream production cuts have expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [34]. - Outlook: Volatile and bullish. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - View: Supply continues to decrease, and caustic soda is cautiously bullish. - Main Logic: Geopolitical conflicts have increased the cost support and supply - reduction expectations. The production - cut scale at home and abroad has expanded, exports have improved, and inventory is expected to decrease [35]. - Outlook: Volatile and bullish. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy - Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spread: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, including the latest values and changes [37]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis, changes in the basis, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are provided [38]. - Inter - Variety Spread: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, L - P, etc., are provided [39]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The commodity index, commodity 20 index, and industrial products index show different degrees of decline [276]. - Sector Index: The energy index shows a decline of 8.58% on March 11, 2026, an increase of 1.11% in the past 5 days, an increase of 41.21% in the past month, and an increase of 45.03% since the beginning of the year [278].