招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as the Middle - East situation, inflation, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10] 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - Market Performance: International gold prices denominated in London gold fell 0.14% to $5182.875 per ounce on Wednesday night. Domestic gold exchange 9999 rose 0.49% to 1150.42, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange's main contract rose 0.17% to 1151.98 yuan per gram [1] - Fundamentals: US inflation continues to cool, with February CPI up 2.4% and core CPI up 2.5% year - on - year. The inflation problem caused by the Iran issue has not been reflected in the data. The IEA approved the release of a record 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Domestic gold ETFs continued to flow out slightly, and some metal inventories changed [1] - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold; for silver, short - term investors are advised to leave the market and wait and see [1] Base Metals - Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices fluctuated yesterday [2] - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation intensified, and metals were under pressure. The supply of copper ore remained tight, but refined copper inventories increased rapidly. The spot premium of flat - water copper in East and South China was 30 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the refined - scrap price difference was about 1200 yuan [2] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [2] - Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 1.35% to 25215 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 260 yuan per ton, with the LME price at 3440 US dollars per ton [2] - Fundamentals: Aluminum smelters maintained high - load production, and the weekly aluminum product operating rate increased slightly [2] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [2] - Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract increased by 1.06% to 2869 yuan per ton, and the domestic 0 - 3 month spread was - 192 yuan per ton [2][3] - Fundamentals: The operating capacity of alumina plants was relatively stable, and electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [3] - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to maintain a shock operation [3] - Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8620 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.06%, an increase in open interest of 4910 lots to 248864 lots (+2.01%), and a decrease in trading volume of 60018 lots to 122488 lots (-32.89%) [3] - Fundamentals: The number of open furnaces increased this week, mainly in Xinjiang. Social inventories decreased slightly. The output of polysilicon in February was within 80,000 tons, and it is expected to exceed 80,000 tons per month after resuming work in March. The organic silicon industry's quotation increased, and the weekly output increased slightly. The price of aluminum alloy continued to rise, and the operating rate was relatively stable [3] - Trading Strategy: The disk is expected to fluctuate between 8100 - 9000. If large factories still have resumption plans, consider shorting on rallies [3] - Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: LC2605 closed at 155,040 yuan per ton (-7960), with a closing price decrease of 4.8% [3] - Fundamentals: The spot price of SMM Australian spodumene concentrate (CIF China) remained unchanged at 2240 US dollars per ton, and the SMM electric carbon price increased by 500 yuan to 159,000 yuan per ton. The weekly output increased by 768 tons to 22590 tons. SMM expects the production volume in March to be 106,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7%. The production volume of lithium iron phosphate in March is expected to be 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.3%; the production volume of ternary materials in March is expected to be 84,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1%. It is expected to maintain destocking in Q1, and the sample inventory decreased by 720 tons to 99,300 tons [3] - Trading Strategy: The low - level inventory supports the price to fluctuate around the 150,000 - yuan center. It is expected that the destocking amplitude will narrow in March, and the subsequent upward driving force still needs to wait and see the prosperity of the new energy vehicle terminal consumption [3] - Polycrystalline Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 42590 yuan per ton, up 140 yuan per ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price increase of 0.33%, a decrease in open interest of 104 lots to 34909 lots (-0.30%), and a decrease in trading volume of 2146 lots to 4663 lots (-31.52%) [3] - Fundamentals: The weekly output remained flat. The industry inventory increased by 4.2% this week. The warehouse receipts increased slightly, mainly due to the registration of the Xinte brand. The prices of downstream products all declined slightly. The production schedules of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in March have recovered month - on - month, but the year - on - year performance is still weak [3] - Trading Strategy: Affected by position limits, the liquidity of the polycrystalline silicon futures contract is limited. The disk is expected to fluctuate between 40000 - 44000. Pay attention to the actual purchase order prices of downstream products [3] - Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices fluctuated yesterday [3] - Fundamentals: The Middle - East situation intensified, and market risk appetite decreased significantly. The import of tin ore is gradually recovering, but there is still a large gap from the pre - shutdown level. Yesterday, the warehouse receipts increased by 322 tons, and the premium of deliverable brands was 1000 - 1500 yuan. The London structure was 250 contango [3] - Trading Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [3] Black Industry - Rebar - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3125 yuan per ton, up 27 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - Fundamentals: The apparent demand for building materials increased by 1710000 tons to 3920000 tons, and the output increased by 450000 tons to 4130000 tons. The steel spot market transaction is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply and demand are weak. The demand expectation for building materials is weak, but the supply has decreased significantly year - on - year, and the contradiction is limited. The demand for plates is recovering, and direct and indirect exports remain at a high level. The inventory level is still high, but the inventory accumulation amplitude is slightly higher than the seasonality. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the output increase space is limited [4] - Trading Strategy: Close short positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3090 - 3150 [4] - Iron Ore - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 791 yuan per ton, up 9 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - Fundamentals: The shipping volume of Australia and Brazil decreased by 13% to 23.42 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9%. The supply and demand of iron ore are neutral. The molten iron output decreased significantly month - on - month, and was basically the same year - on - year. The first round of coke price reduction was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase slope of blast furnace output is limited. The supply is in line with the seasonal law. The inventory of blast furnace steel mills is slightly high, and the inventory days are above the historical average. Although the total port inventory has increased by about 20 million tons to 170 million tons year - on - year, the proportion of mainstream iron ore inventory at ports is extremely low, and the structural contradiction persists. The iron ore maintains a forward discount structure but is slightly lower year - on - year, and the valuation is slightly on the high side [4] - Trading Strategy: Mainly wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 770 - 800 [4] - Coking Coal - Market Performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1150.5 yuan per ton, up 32 yuan per ton from the previous night's closing price [4] - Fundamentals: Affected by the production restrictions during the Two Sessions, the molten iron output decreased by 57000 tons to 228000 tons month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 29000 tons. The first round of coke price increase was implemented before the festival, and steel mills are currently planning a price reduction. The profit of steel mills is poor, and the subsequent increase slope of blast furnace output may be gentle. The port customs clearance at the supply end remains at a high level, and the inventories at various links are differentiated. The inventories at ports and mines are high, while the inventories at other links are low, and the overall inventory level is low. The 05 contract futures are at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure is maintained, and the futures valuation is on the high side [4] - Trading Strategy: Close short positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1110 - 1170 [4] Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal - Market Performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise [5] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, and more than half of the Brazilian soybeans have been harvested. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing is strong, and exports meet expectations. In general, the global supply - demand is expected to be loose [5] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, US soybeans are strong, trading on the macro - crude oil drive. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production. The domestic market is also strong in the short term, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. Pay attention to the macro - crude oil and the realization of South American production [5] - Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices were strong, and spot prices continued to rise [5] - Fundamentals: In terms of supply and demand, the grain sales progress is close to 70%, the grain sales pressure is not large, and the willingness to sell is not strong, with a slow sales progress. The inventories at ports and downstream are at a low level, downstream enterprises are in losses, but their bargaining power is weak, and the current spot price is still dominated by the producing areas. Pay attention to the weather and the purchase - sales rhythm [5][6] - Trading Strategy: With little remaining grain and downstream restocking, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [6] - Fats and Oils - Market Performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [6] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, MPOB showed that the Malaysian production in February decreased by 18.6% month - on - month, and it is expected to enter the seasonal production increase period later. On the demand side, MPOB showed that the Malaysian exports in February decreased by 22.5% month - on - month. The Malaysian palm oil inventory at the end of February decreased by 3.9% to 2.7 million tons [6] - Trading Strategy: In the short term, fats and oils are strong following crude oil, but the difficulty of unilateral trading increases. Pay attention to the subsequent crude oil and the production in the producing areas [6] - Sugar - Market Performance: The 05 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5429 yuan per ton, with a gain of 0.24%. The basis of Nanning spot - Zhengzhou sugar 05 contract is 26 yuan per ton, and the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar processing after tax with additional quota is 610 yuan per ton [6] - Fundamentals: Due to the soaring international crude oil price, the ethanol price has risen, and the market is worried that the upcoming new - season Brazil may use sugarcane to produce ethanol, with an expected significant reduction in the sugar - making ratio. Coupled with the under - expected production increase in India, the international sugar price has returned to above 14 cents per pound. In terms of domestic sugar pressing, the estimated sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 crushing season has been continuously raised to 7.2 - 7.3 million tons. The single - month production in Guangxi in February is expected to reach the highest level in recent years, and Guangxi has entered the inventory accumulation stage. Recently, macro - funds have allocated long positions in sugar. Affected by the oil price and policy support, it is difficult for Zhengzhou sugar to fall in the short term. The rebound height depends on the cooling of the Middle - East situation, the trend of the oil price, and the sugar - ethanol ratio in the new - season Brazil [6] - Trading Strategy: Mainly wait and see [6] - Cotton - Market Performance: Overnight, the ICE US cotton futures price rose first and then fell, and the international crude oil futures price fluctuated strongly [6] - Fundamentals: Internationally, in March, USDA raised the global cotton production in the 25/26 year by 1.1 million bales and lowered the consumption by 140,000 bales. In February, Vietnam's cotton imports were 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.6%. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price rose first and then fell. In March, BCO data lowered the total supply and ending inventory of domestic cotton in the 26/27 year and raised the total demand [6] - Trading Strategy: Buy on dips. The price range is 15300 - 15800 yuan per ton [6] - Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded slightly, and spot prices were stable [6] - Fundamentals: Currently, the demand has recovered, the market sales have accelerated, and the inventory has decreased, but the breeding end is not willing to cull, and the overall supply is sufficient. Egg prices are expected to run at a low level [6] - Trading Strategy: With the recovery of demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate [6] - Hogs - Market Performance: Hog futures prices fluctuated narrowly, and spot prices continued to fall [6] - Fundamentals: In March, the slaughter volume at the breeding end increased significantly compared with February, and the slaughter weight is at a high level in recent years. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, with strong supply and weak demand. The futures and spot prices are expected to run weakly. Pay attention to the recent slaughter volume and slaughter rhythm [6] - Trading Strategy: With strong supply and weak demand, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6] Energy and Chemicals - LLDPE - Market Performance: The main LLDPE contract rose significantly yesterday. The low - price spot quotation in North China was 8000 yuan per ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was the disk price minus 200, with the basis weakening. The market trading performance was average. Overseas, the US dollar price rose steadily, and the import window was closed [8] - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there will be no new device put into production in the first half of the year. Some existing devices plan to reduce the load and stop production due to the expected shortage of crude oil caused by the US - Iran conflict, and domestic supply has decreased significantly. The import window has been closed, and with the easing of the US - Iran geopolitical situation, the import volume is expected to decrease. In general, the short - term domestic supply pressure has eased. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are gradually resuming work, and the demand has improved month - on - month. March and April are the peak seasons for agricultural film demand [8] - **Trading