棕榈油：RVO公布在即，油脂偏强运行；豆油：美豆成本支撑，短期高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil is expected to be strongly influenced by the upcoming RVO announcement and is likely to run strongly. Soybean oil is supported by the cost of US soybeans and will experience short - term high - level fluctuations [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Fluctuations: Palm oil's closing price in the day session was 9,526 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and 9,612 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's closing price in the day session was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and 8,588 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.21% increase. Rapeseed oil's closing price in the day session was 9,778 yuan/ton with a 0.67% increase, and 9,750 yuan/ton in the night session with a - 0.29% decrease. Malaysian palm oil's closing price was 4,499 ringgit/ton with a 1.60% increase, and 4,526 ringgit/ton with a 0.60% increase. CBOT soybean oil's closing price was 67.18 cents/pound with a 2.38% increase [2] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Palm oil's trading volume was 507,766 lots with a decrease of 374,636 lots, and open interest was 339,375 lots with an increase of 1,068 lots. Soybean oil's trading volume was 396,105 lots with a decrease of 108,399 lots, and open interest was 617,170 lots with an increase of 5,771 lots. Rapeseed oil's trading volume was 227,366 lots with a decrease of 60,687 lots, and open interest was 253,670 lots with a decrease of 4,128 lots [2] - Spot Prices and Changes: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,530 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The spot price of fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 10,210 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The FOB price of Malaysian palm oil was 1,165 dollars/ton with a 30 - dollar decrease [2] - Basis: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 4 yuan/ton, that of soybean oil in Guangdong was 380 yuan/ton, and that of rapeseed oil in Guangxi was 432 yuan/ton [2] - Price Spreads: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures was 252 yuan/ton, the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures was - 956 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of palm oil was 56 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread of soybean oil was 114 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was 117 yuan/ton [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang pointed out that due to the expected increase in exports offsetting the rise in production, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March 2026 may decrease by 8% month - on - month to 2.48 million tons. If the Middle East conflict continues, palm oil prices still have room to rise [3] - From March 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area increased by 4.29% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.52% month - on - month, and production increased by 1.55% month - on - month [5] - The IEA will provide 400 million barrels of oil from emergency reserves to the market due to the significant and rising risks in the oil market caused by the Middle East situation [5] - The GAPKI said that new palm oil export orders have slowed down due to the increase in logistics and insurance costs caused by the Middle East conflict [5] - The BCR maintained its estimates of soybean and corn production in Argentina as the widespread rainfall in February helped stabilize the crop conditions in major planting areas [5] - Soybean harvesting in Brazil's Paraná state is in full swing. Dry weather has facilitated the harvesting work, but irregular rainfall and temperature fluctuations during the growing season have affected the crops. Drought has caused water shortages in some areas, and recent rainfall has interrupted field operations in other areas [5] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of palm oil is 1, and that of soybean oil is 1 [6]