国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: With the upcoming RVO announcement, oils are trending strongly [2][4]. - Soybean oil: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it will oscillate at a high level in the short term [2][4]. - Soybean meal: After the price reached a phased high, it declined and is now in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][10]. - Soybean: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is in an adjustment and oscillation phase [2][10]. - Corn: It will move in an oscillatory manner [2][13]. - Sugar: It will be in a range - bound consolidation [2][18]. - Cotton: Waiting for new driving factors [2][23]. - Eggs: It will oscillate within a range [2][28]. - Pigs: There is passive inventory accumulation, and the spot price is declining gradually [2][31]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [2][35]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 9,526 yuan/ton with a 0.68% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9,612 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 8,570 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and the night - session closing price was 8,588 yuan/ton with a 0.21% increase [5]. - Macro and Industry News: CIMB Securities analyst Ivy Ng Lee Fang pointed out that due to the expected increase in exports offsetting the rise in production, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in March may decrease by 8% month - on - month to 2.48 million tons. If the Middle East conflict persists, prices still have room to rise [6]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4834 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase, and the night - session closing price was 4837 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase. DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 3068 yuan/ton with a 3.58% increase, and the night - session closing price was 3047 yuan/ton with a 0.49% increase [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On March 11, CBOT soybean futures rose for the second consecutive day as international crude oil futures rebounded from the previous day's sharp decline. There is a market rumor that the US EPA is about to issue new regulations on renewable fuel blending, which may require large refineries to make up 70% of the bio - fuel blending exemption quota [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal trend intensity is 0, and soybean trend intensity is 0 [12]. Corn - Fundamental Data: The day - session closing price of C2605 was 2,395 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,394 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% change. The day - session closing price of C2607 was 2,406 yuan/ton with a 0.59% increase, and the night - session closing price was 2,403 yuan/ton with a - 0.12% change [14]. - Macro and Industry News: The bulk shipping port - collection price of northern corn decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas compared to the previous day. The containerized first - class grain port - collection price remained unchanged. The price of corn in the Northeast increased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas, and the price in North China mostly increased slightly [15]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 0 [16]. Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.25 cents/pound with a - 0.13 change year - on - year. The mainstream spot price was 5430 yuan/ton with a - 20 change year - on - year. The futures main - contract price was 5423 yuan/ton with a 14 change year - on - year [18]. - Macro and Industry News: As of February 28, the sugar production in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in India increased by 12% year - on - year. India approved an additional 500,000 tons of sugar exports. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December (+190,000 tons). As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season was 4.03 million tons (- 790,000 tons) [18]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [21]. Cotton - Fundamental Data: The day - session closing price of CF2605 was 15,515 yuan/ton with a 1.27% increase, and the night - session closing price was 15490 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change. The day - session closing price of CY2605 was 21,580 yuan/ton with a 1.41% increase [23]. - Macro and Industry News: The spot trading of cotton was mostly light, and the spot fixed - price quotes were few. The price was gradually higher than that of imported cotton of the same quality. The price of pure - cotton yarn was stable with a slight increase, and the market sentiment improved [24]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 1 [27]. Eggs - Fundamental Data: The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,241 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.22% change. The closing price of egg 2605 was 3,438 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.64% change [28]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - Fundamental Data: The Henan spot price was 10230 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 10250 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 10460 yuan/ton. The closing price of pig 2605 was 11170 yuan/ton, the closing price of pig 2607 was 12310 yuan/ton, and the closing price of pig 2609 was 13185 yuan/ton [32]. - Trend Intensity: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [33]. Peanuts - Fundamental Data: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of PK604 was 7,958 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase, and the closing price of PK605 was 8,034 yuan/ton with a 0.78% increase [35]. - Spot Market Focus: In Henan, the price of Baisha general peanuts in some areas was stable with a slight increase, and the price of large peanuts was stable. In Jilin, the price of 308 general peanuts was stable. In Liaoning, the price of 308 general peanuts was stable with a slight increase in some areas. In Shandong, the overall supply was low, and the price was stable [36]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [37].