格林大华期货早盘提示：纯苯-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical industry is "long" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle - East geopolitical situation is unclear. The release of oil strategic reserves may temporarily relieve but cannot fundamentally solve the impact of the suspension in the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil fluctuates sharply. Pure benzene previously faced the expectation of reduced raw material input, leading to an expectation of tightened supply in the market. Major downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline have good profitability. In the short term, the price of pure benzene strengthens again under cost - push and the enhanced blending logic. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2604 rose by 516 yuan to 8450 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 7965 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 145), and the spot price in Shandong was 7403 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 849). In terms of positions, the long positions decreased by 372 lots to 20,000 lots, and the short positions decreased by 549 lots to 21,900 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - Supply: In February, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.8591 million tons, a decrease of 87,300 tons from the previous month and an increase of 138,500 tons from the same month last year [2] - Inventory: On March 9, 2026, the total commercial inventory of pure benzene ports in Jiangsu was 302,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous inventory of 303,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33%; compared with the inventory of 141,000 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 161,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 114.18%. From March 2nd to March 8th, the incomplete statistics showed that the arrival was 12,000 tons and the pick - up was about 13,000 tons. During the period, among the statistical storage areas, 1 storage area decreased, 1 storage area increased, and 5 storage areas remained stable [2] - Price Adjustment: Sinopec Chemical Sales lowered the listed price of pure benzene by 3000 yuan/ton today. The resources along the Yangtze River of the East China, North China, South China, and Central China branches all implement 8000 yuan/ton. This price will be officially implemented from March 10th [2] - Demand: The operating rate of styrene was 74.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the operating rate of phenol was 89%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of caprolactam was 74.5%, unchanged from the previous month; the operating rate of aniline was 89.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.23%; the operating rate of adipic acid was 69.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8% [2] - International Oil Price: The shipping blockage in the Strait of Hormuz continued to push up the supply risk. The International Energy Agency agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves, but it will be implemented in steps and no specific plan was announced. International oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 3.80 dollars/barrel to 87.25 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 4.18 dollars/barrel to 91.98 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 4.76%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2604 contract fell 83.2 to 649.2 yuan/barrel and rose 45.8 to 695 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle - East geopolitical situation is unclear. The release of oil strategic reserves may temporarily relieve but cannot fundamentally solve the impact of the suspension in the Strait of Hormuz. International crude oil fluctuates sharply. Pure benzene previously faced the expectation of reduced raw material input, leading to an expectation of tightened supply in the market. Major downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, and aniline have good profitability. In the short term, the price of pure benzene strengthens again under cost - push and the enhanced blending logic [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish thinking or focus on the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [2]