期货市场交易指引-20260312

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [1][6][7] - Black Building Materials: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; Rebar is for range trading; Glass is recommended to short on rallies [1][10][11][13] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for short - term range trading in the range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton; Aluminum is advised to strengthen observation; Nickel is recommended to hold moderately on dips; Tin is for range trading; Gold and silver are expected to move in a range; Lithium carbonate is expected to move in a range [1][15][18][20] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and polyolefins are expected to be bullish in a range; Rubber is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs; Urea and methanol are for range trading; Soda ash is recommended to short on rallies [1][27][30][31] - Cotton and Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn, and apples are expected to be bullish in a range; Red dates are expected to move in a range [1][40][42][43] - Agricultural and Livestock: For live pigs, take a bearish approach on rebounds for contracts 05 and 07, and treat contract 09 with a range - bound view; Eggs are expected to move in a range; Corn is bullish in a range, be cautious about chasing highs at high levels; For soybean meal 05, be cautiously bullish; Oils are expected to be bullish in a range, with a strategy of rolling long on soybean and palm oils [1][45][46][48] Core Views - The global economic situation is complex, affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, inflation, and Fed's interest - rate policies. Different futures varieties show different trends and investment opportunities due to their own supply - demand fundamentals and external factors [6][16][23] - For most futures varieties, the current market is in a state of dynamic balance, with both upward and downward pressures. Investment decisions need to comprehensively consider multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and cost [10][16][27] Summaries by Category Macro Finance - Index Futures: The US inflation is cooling, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation is weakening, and the index futures may be under pressure in the short - term, but are long - term bullish [6] - Treasury Bonds: The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts and interest - rate cuts is over. The market will focus on institutional behavior at the end of the quarter and overseas situation changes. Treasury bonds are expected to move in a range [7] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable. Mines are resuming production, but the trading atmosphere is weak. Downstream demand is slow to recover, and short - term trading is recommended [10] - Rebar: The rebar futures price is oscillating strongly. The valuation is low, and the short - term price is expected to be bullish in a range, depending on the demand recovery progress [11] - Glass: Supply is increasing, inventory is rising, and demand is less than expected. The price is expected to have limited upward space, and shorting on rallies is recommended [12][13] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is in a high - level range and weakening. Macro factors suppress the price, but supply and consumption expectations support it. Short - term range trading or waiting and seeing is recommended, paying attention to war factors and inventory changes [15][16] - Aluminum: The price is in a high - level range. The supply and demand situation is complex, affected by the Middle - East situation. Strengthening observation is recommended, and pay attention to the inflection point of inventory [17][18] - Nickel: Affected by the reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas, the price is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to hold moderately on dips [19][20] - Tin: The supply is tight, and the downstream demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate widely, and range trading is recommended [21] - Gold and Silver: Affected by the US - Iran conflict, inflation expectations, and interest - rate cut expectations, the prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see and trade cautiously [23][24] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand are both increasing. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the export ban in Zimbabwe and the disturbance in Yichun's mining end [25][26] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is low, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, but the export is good. In the short - term, it is bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to policies and risk events [27] - Caustic Soda: The demand from Guangxi's alumina production provides support, and the export is increasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply - side maintenance, and downstream replenishment [30] - Styrene: Supported by cost and export, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to raw material prices and inventory [31] - Polyolefins: Affected by the geopolitical conflict, the cost is supported. The supply and demand are improving marginally, and the price is expected to be bullish [33] - Rubber: The cost is supported, but the inventory pressure is large. The price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to buy on dips without chasing highs, and pay attention to inventory and demand [34] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [36] - Methanol: Affected by the Iran conflict, the supply may be in short - supply. The demand from the olefin industry is stable, and the traditional downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [37] - Soda Ash: The supply is excessive, the inventory pressure is increasing, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Shorting on rallies is recommended [39] Cotton and Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation is changing. After the festival, the consumption expectation is rising, and the price is expected to be bullish in a range [40] - Apples: The trading is stable, the price of farmers' goods is stable, and the sales in the sales area are okay. The price is expected to be bullish in a range [42] - Red Dates: The acquisition price in the production area is based on quality, and the price is expected to move in a range [43] Agricultural and Livestock - Live Pigs: In the short - term, the supply exceeds the demand, and the price is bottom - oscillating. For contracts 05 and 07, take a bearish approach on rebounds; for contract 09, treat it with a range - bound view [44][45] - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, the demand is in the transition from the off - season to the normal state. The price is expected to move in a range, and shorting on rallies for near - month contracts can be considered [46] - Corn: The spot price is bullish in the short - term, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. Be cautious about chasing highs at high levels [48] - Soybean Meal: Affected by factors such as the US - China talks and South American production, the 05 contract should be cautiously bullish [49] - Oils: Affected by the international crude oil price, the price is expected to be bullish in a range. It is recommended to roll long on soybean and palm oils [50][51][54]