股市维持适度乐观，债市表现疲软

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The stock market maintains a moderately optimistic outlook, while the bond market shows weakness. Specifically, for stock index futures, maintain a moderately optimistic stance; for stock index options, continue to hold call options for defense; for treasury bond futures, the bond market is weak [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - View: Maintain a moderately optimistic outlook. Yesterday, the equity market rose and then fell, with the ChiNext Index leading the gain by 1.31% and the CSI 300 rising by 0.64%. The large - cap style was generally strong. The new energy sectors such as photovoltaic and lithium - battery took turns to make up for the gains, while the technology sector declined. Due to the stalemate in the geopolitical conflict and the failure of energy mitigation measures, market risk appetite was suppressed, and funds quickly gathered towards certain themes. The negative public opinion caused by the OpenClaw security issue led to the adjustment of software and semiconductor sectors. The annual report performance of new energy and automobile stocks exceeded market expectations, indicating strong downstream demand, and institutions revealed price - increase expectations for lithium mines and photovoltaics, which catalyzed the industry switch of funds. Although the seesaw effect between short - term energy, the US dollar index, and the stock market is still obvious, both domestic and international markets are relatively restrained, suggesting the expectation of TACO and mitigation measures still exists. In operation, temporarily maintain a moderately optimistic attitude, hold half - position IM long positions, and wait for the risks to materialize before making a right - side attack [3][9]. - Operation Suggestion: Hold IM [9]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - View: Continue to hold call options for defense. Yesterday, the equity index fluctuated strongly. The overall form of option indicators was similar to that of the previous day. The trading volume of the varieties decreased slightly, and the option sentiment indicator, the position PCR, strengthened mainly. Combined with the natural decline of implied volatility, it shows that the market sentiment is relatively warm. However, considering the large recent market fluctuations, the trend - following effect of option - end indicators is stronger than the guiding effect, and the current option market is trading on volatility rather than simply on direction. Therefore, the option strategy will cautiously maintain the weekly report view, still suggesting to continue to hold call options for defense to protect the systematic risks of the overall position [4][9]. - Operation Suggestion: Continue to hold call options for defense [9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - View: The bond market is weak. Treasury bond futures fell across the board. The inter - bank bond market was generally weak yesterday, with the yields of most major interest - rate bonds rising slightly. The 30 - year main contract led the decline, pushing the yield curve to steepen. The inter - bank market funds were stable but slightly tightened. Although the overall market fund supply remained stable and the difficulty of institutional lending was limited, as the mid - month tax - payment time approached, the market funds might face certain phased pressure, but it was expected not to cause large - scale liquidity tension. The widening of the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds was a significant feature of the bond market yesterday. The market was still worried about the possible inflation increase caused by the rising oil price. Coupled with the strong export data at the beginning of the year, the 30Y treasury bond performed worse than the 10Y treasury bond. In the short term, the situation in the Middle East is still very changeable, and the impact on inflation needs to be continuously observed. Inflation concerns may continue to disturb the bond market, and the bond market may continue the volatile market in the short term [5][9][10]. - Operation Suggestion: Trend strategy: volatile. Hedging strategy: pay attention to short - hedging at the low basis. Basis strategy: pay attention to the long - end positive arbitrage opportunity. Curve strategy: pay attention to the flattening of the 30Y - 10Y in the short term [10].