金融期货早班车-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is advisable to wait and see; in the medium and long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 11, the A - share market showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25% to 4133.43 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to 14465.41 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.31% to 3349.53 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index fell 1.37% to 1401.08 points. Market turnover was 25,283 billion yuan, an increase of 111.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2] - In terms of industry sectors, coal (+2.53%), power equipment (+2.43%), and basic chemicals (+2.08%) performed well; comprehensive (-1.98%), national defense and military industry (-1.37%), and media (-1.17%) performed averagely [2] - From the perspective of market strength, IF > IM > IH > IC. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,055, 146, and 3,284 respectively. Net capital inflows of institutions, main players, large investors, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 4.9 billion yuan, - 14.4 billion yuan, 0.8 billion yuan, and 18.5 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 16.2 billion yuan, - 3.2 billion yuan, + 14.1 billion yuan, and + 5.2 billion yuan respectively [2] - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 118.53, 86.53, 36.5, and 1.94 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 13.12%, - 9.53%, - 7.18%, and - 0.6% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 25%, 24%, 15%, and 43% respectively [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - On March 11, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.01%, TF fell 0.03%, T fell 0.04%, and TL fell 0.19% [3] - For the current active 2606 contract, the CTD bond of the 2 - year treasury bond futures was 250024.IB, with a yield change of + 0.25 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.029, and an IRR of 1.36%; the CTD bond of the 5 - year treasury bond futures was 250014.IB, with a yield change of + 0.5 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.018, and an IRR of 1.4%; the CTD bond of the 10 - year treasury bond futures was 250025.IB, with a yield change of + 0.6 bps, a corresponding net basis of - 0.002, and an IRR of 1.47%; the CTD bond of the 30 - year treasury bond futures was 220008.IB, with a yield change of + 1.75 bps, a corresponding net basis of 0.06, and an IRR of 1.29% [3] - In terms of the money market, the central bank injected 26.5 billion yuan and withdrew 40.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 14 billion yuan [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [9]