综合晨报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price briefly declined and then rebounded rapidly after the IEA member countries decided to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves. The supply risk and strong demand support the oil price to remain high before the key straits resume safe passage [1]. - Precious metals are in a historical high - level shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the war trend and energy price changes [2]. - The copper price trading rhythm is supported by spot buying interest, but the war situation and high visible inventory may still lead to copper price fluctuations [3]. - The aluminum price fluctuates strongly at a high level, and the previous high position has resistance. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical guidance [4]. - The prices of most commodities are affected by the geopolitical situation, and the market is in a state of shock, with different trends for different varieties. Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - Crude Oil: The IEA member countries released 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, the largest in history. The strategic reserves need to be replenished in the future. The situation in the Strait controlled by Iran is tense, and the supply risk and strong demand support the oil price to remain high [1]. - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: G7 announced joint oil release, but the passage prospects of the Strait of Hormuz are still uncertain. High - sulfur fuel oil faces supply loss pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weaker [21]. - Natural Gas: No relevant content provided. - Coal: - Coke: The spot price is rising, the coking profit is average, and the inventory is slightly rising. The coke price is likely to rise due to energy concerns caused by geopolitical conflicts [16]. - Coking Coal: The spot price is rising, the supply is abundant, and the terminal inventory is declining. The coal price is likely to rise due to energy concerns, but the high - level Mongolian coal customs clearance data suppresses the price [17]. Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals are in a historical high - level shock pattern. The US 2 - month unadjusted core CPI annual rate is 2.5%, in line with market expectations. The war situation and energy price changes need to be concerned [2]. - Base Metals: - Copper: The copper price fluctuates, and the spot premium expands. The market is concerned about the uncertainty of the Middle East war situation. The copper price is supported by spot buying interest but may be affected by the war and high inventory [3]. - Aluminum: The Shanghai aluminum fluctuates strongly. The domestic social inventory is at a high level, but the overseas low - inventory situation and the Middle East situation intensify the shortage concern. The aluminum price fluctuates strongly at a high level [4]. - Zinc: The macro - liquidity is tightening, the LME zinc rebound momentum is insufficient, and the domestic zinc surplus pressure still exists. The zinc price is expected to maintain a high - level shock [7]. - Lead: The lead price is in a low - level shock. The inventory is under pressure, the cost support for the futures is insufficient, and the price is in the range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: The nickel price fluctuates narrowly, and the upstream price rebound supports the middle - stream price. The nickel market lacks an independent driver and follows the external sentiment to rebound [9]. - Tin: The tin price fluctuates, and the market supply and demand news is flat. The tin price is in a relatively high - price area, and the resistance level of 400,000 - 405,000 yuan is effective [10]. - Ferroalloys: - Manganese Silicon: The international conflict has a positive impact on the manganese ore freight, and the cost is relatively favorable. The demand for iron water decreases, and the price is likely to fluctuate [18]. - Silicon Iron: The electricity price in Inner Mongolia increases, and the demand for iron water is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the price is likely to fluctuate [19]. Chemicals - Polyolefins: - Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene: The cost support weakens, the demand for propylene decreases, and the market trading is weak [27]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The PVC price rises, the supply decreases, and the inventory pressure still exists. The caustic soda price is strong, and the industry profit is repaired [28]. - Aromatics: - Pure Benzene: The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases, and the pure benzene price rises. The domestic production decreases, and the inventory decreases slightly [25]. - Styrene: The cost is under pressure due to the oil price decline, and the domestic supply is expected to decrease, which supports the price [26]. - Other Chemicals: - Methanol: The shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz increases, and the methanol price rebounds. The import volume decreases, and the port inventory decreases [24]. - PX and PTA: The price of PX and PTA strengthens, and the market is concerned about the oil tanker passage in the Strait [29]. - Ethylene Glycol: The new capacity has long - term pressure, and the price rebounds due to the tense situation in Iran [30]. - Short - Fiber and Bottle - Chip: The short - fiber inventory rises, and the bottle - chip load rises. The market is affected by the Middle East situation and follows the raw material fluctuations [31]. - Asphalt: The domestic refineries are worried about the raw material supply, and the production capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. The asphalt price follows the oil price but has a relatively limited range [22]. - Urea: The urea price rises, the domestic supply is high, and the demand is in the peak season. The price is expected to be strong within the range [23]. Agricultural Products - Grains and Oils: - Soybeans, Soybean Meal, and Rapeseed Meal: The US - Iran war situation affects the price, and the domestic soybean meal price is supported by the rising import cost. The supply of rapeseed is expected to increase [35]. - Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil: The soybean import cost rises, and the vegetable oil price is affected by the crude oil market. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the crude oil market [36]. - Corn: The domestic corn price is affected by the geopolitical situation. The US corn price follows the crude oil price. The domestic corn futures may follow the geopolitical factors in the short term [38]. - Livestock and Poultry: - Pigs: The pig price is in the process of secondary bottom - building, the inventory pressure is large, and the far - month contract can be considered for long positions after the premium narrows [39]. - Eggs: The egg price is supported by the rising soybean meal price. The supply is expected to decrease, and the price is expected to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the egg futures contract [40]. - Cash Crops: - Cotton: The cotton price rises, the commercial inventory is well digested, and the supply is expected to be tight. The demand feedback is average, and the mid - term outlook is cautiously bullish [41]. - Sugar: The international sugar production situation varies. The domestic sugar price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the production situation [42]. - Apples: The apple futures price is in a high - level shock. The demand in the northwest is good, but the quality in Shandong is poor, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - Wood: The wood price fluctuates. The supply is expected to be tight, the demand is increasing, and the low inventory supports the price. It is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Paper Pulp: The paper pulp price rises slightly, the inventory is at a high level, the overseas quotation is strong, and the mid - term trend is expected to be range - bound [45]. Others - Shipping: The spot price of the container shipping index (European line) is under pressure, but the sentiment of the Middle East situation provides some support. The market is dominated by sentiment and is prone to fluctuations [20].