铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical disturbances are still fermenting, and the international oil price will continue to be highly volatile. The US inflation data is in line with expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have cooled. The A - share market is likely to maintain a volatile and sector - differentiated pattern in the short term, and the bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. Different commodity prices will show different trends affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and inflation expectations [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Overseas, the Middle East conflict continues. Iran warns that oil prices may rise to $200 per barrel, and the IEA plans to release a record 4 billion barrels of reserves. The US 2 - month CPI data is in line with expectations, with the core CPI at a five - year low. The US stock market is weakly volatile, the US dollar index rises, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounds. Domestically, the A - share market closes higher with reduced trading volume, and the bond market continues to weaken [2][3] Precious Metals - International precious metal futures generally close down. The latest US CPI data shows that inflation continues to cool, which cools the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and strengthens the US dollar, suppressing precious metal prices. Although the release of oil reserves weakens the inflation logic, the Middle East geopolitical situation remains highly uncertain, and it is difficult to form a trend - based market for now [4][5] Copper - LME copper fluctuates around $13,000. The US inflation is in line with expectations, and the cost - transfer signs of tariffs are emerging. The Iranian - US conflict has uncertain directions, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space this year. Fundamentally, the supply growth rate of copper concentrates is low, and the domestic social inventory starts to be destocked. It is expected that copper prices will remain high and volatile in the short term [6][7] Aluminum - The price increase of aluminum slows down. Trump indicates that the military action against Iran is "about to end", but the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. It is expected that the upward trend of aluminum prices will slow down. If the strait is restricted for more than 4 weeks, there may be a shortage of raw material alumina in the Middle East, leading to passive production cuts [8][9] Alumina - The domestic supply - demand of alumina is relatively stable recently. The supply - side operating rate remains flat, and the consumption - side electrolytic aluminum enterprises resume most long - term order purchases. Overseas alumina prices fall, but freight prices rise. It is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations [10] Cast Aluminum - Cast aluminum runs strongly. The Middle East geopolitical situation disturbs the market, and the price of primary aluminum remains strong. Although the supply of scrap aluminum has improved significantly, the price of scrap aluminum also rises with the increase of primary aluminum. The cost support of cast aluminum is strong, and it is expected to run strongly, but the sustainability depends on the realization of the consumption peak season [11] Zinc - The zinc price shows a volatile pattern. The US core inflation slows down, and the market expects the next Fed interest - rate cut to be in September. The release of oil reserves fails to effectively relieve inflation concerns, and the US dollar strengthens, suppressing metals. The downstream consumption improvement is not obvious, and the inventory remains high, but the overseas zinc ore supply tightens, and the processing fees are under pressure. The zinc price has support at the bottom, and the short - term contradiction is not prominent, maintaining a volatile pattern [12] Lead - The lead price stabilizes. After the lead price falls, the downstream battery enterprises' purchase at low prices improves, but the high inventory and the inflow pressure of crude lead restrain the lead price. The short - term futures price is difficult to change the low - level volatile pattern [13] Tin - The tin price fluctuates narrowly. Investors are vigilant about the further escalation of the Middle East conflict, the US dollar index rises after a fall, and risk assets are under pressure. The downstream demand is average, and the inventory reduction in China needs to be observed. The supply - side concerns are alleviated, and the fundamental support weakens. It is expected that the tin price will maintain a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [14] Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates strongly. The US inflation is in line with expectations, but the Iranian - US conflict is uncertain, and the large - scale fluctuations in oil prices may limit the Fed's interest - rate cut space. The shipping obstruction in the Strait of Hormuz affects Indonesia's sulfur imports, increasing the production cost of nickel. The downstream steel mills enter the peak season, but the actual production may be lower than expected. It is expected that the nickel price will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16] Steel (Screw and Coil) - The steel futures fluctuate and rebound. The spot market trading shows signs of recovery. The downstream construction sites resume work, and the steel demand enters the release channel. The supply side also recovers, but the steel mills' production - increasing motivation is insufficient due to limited profit margins, and the inventory starts to decline. It is expected that the futures price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [17] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures fluctuate strongly. After the Two Sessions, steel mills resume production, and the iron - water output rises, supporting the ore price. The overseas shipment decreases this week, but the arrival increases, and the domestic mines also resume production. The port inventory remains at a high level, and the supply pressure still exists. It is expected that the ore price will continue to fluctuate and rebound [18] Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal supply recovers rapidly, the production increases steadily, and the inventory accumulates. After the first - round price cut of coke, the profit margin of coke enterprises narrows, and the production - increasing motivation is not strong. With the end of the Two Sessions, steel mills are expected to resume production, and the demand for coke increases. It is expected that coking coal and coke will run in a volatile manner [19] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal futures fluctuate strongly. Although the IEA plans to release strategic reserves, the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz dominates, and the oil price rises, boosting the US soybean market. The estimated soybean arrival in March is low, and the supply is tight. The import cost rises, and the domestic soybean meal valuation increases. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [20][21] Palm Oil - The palm oil futures fluctuate strongly. The US core inflation slows down as expected, but the post - war impact is not reflected, and the inflation may heat up later. The IEA plans to release reserves, but the oil price still runs strongly due to the obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz. If the oil price remains high, Indonesia may restart the B50 policy this year. The palm oil production in Malaysia increases in early March, but the export demand increases more. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [22][23]