LPG：地缘不确定性较高，丙烯：成本端地缘扰动，供应存减量预期

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the propylene market, highlighting cost - side geopolitical disturbances and expected supply reduction. It also provides detailed data on the fundamentals of LPG and propylene [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking a. Futures Market - For LPG (PG), on March 11, 2026, the 2604 contract had a closing price of 5,447 with a daily increase of 3.32% and a night - session closing price of 5,624 with a night - session increase of 3.25%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 5,288 with a daily increase of 3.28% and a night - session closing price of 5,450 with a night - session increase of 3.06%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 5,136 with a daily increase of 2.51% and a night - session closing price of 5,290 with a night - session increase of 3.00%. - For propylene (PL), the 2604 contract had a closing price of 7,954 with a daily increase of 6.19% and a night - session closing price of 8,375 with a night - session increase of 5.29%. The 2605 contract had a closing price of 7,812 with a daily increase of 4.54% and a night - session closing price of 8,143 with a night - session increase of 4.24%. The 2606 contract had a closing price of 7,523 with a daily increase of 4.53% and a night - session closing price of 7,734 with a night - session increase of 2.80% [1] b. Spot Market - For LPG, the Shandong civil price was 5,030, down 1,390 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of - 417, down 1,565. The East China import price was 6,920, unchanged from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 1,573, down 175. - For propylene, the Shandong price was 8,325, down 475 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 513, down 814. The East China price was 8,700, down 175 from the previous day, with a main - contract basis of 888, down 514 [1] c. Industrial Chain Operating Rates - As of March 6, 2026, the PDH operating rate was 64.93, up 1.7 from the previous week. The alkylation operating rate was 37.2, down 1.99 from the previous day. The MTBE operating rate was 67.72, up 0.5 from the previous week [1] d. LPG Shipment Volumes - From the United States on March 11, 2026, the global shipment volume was 30.3 (in ten thousand tons), up 16.5 from the previous day. The Asian shipment volume was 19.5, up 15.1 from the previous day, and the Chinese shipment volume was 4.7, up 4.7 from the previous day. - From the Middle East, all shipment volumes to various regions were 0 on March 11, 2026 [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 1, and the trend intensity of propylene is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5] 3. Market Information - On March 11, 2026 (Singapore closing time), the April CP paper - cargo price for propane was 572 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the butane price was also 572 US dollars/ton, down 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The May CP paper - cargo price for propane was 569 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day [6] - There are multiple domestic PDH device maintenance plans. For example, Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd.'s PDH device with a capacity of 15 started maintenance on May 12, 2023, and the end time is to be determined. - There are also domestic liquefied gas factory device maintenance plans. For example, Shangneng Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from February 5, 2026, to March 5, 2026, with a normal production volume of 120 and a loss volume of 120 [7]