棉花：等待新的驱动20260312

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The cotton market is waiting for new drivers. ICE cotton futures lack fundamental drivers and have light trading. The domestic cotton spot market has mixed trading, while the cotton - textile market shows some improvement [1][3][2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: CF2605 closed at 15,515 yuan/ton with a 1.27% daily increase and 15,490 yuan/ton at night with a - 0.16% change. CY2605 closed at 21,580 yuan/ton with a 1.41% daily increase and 21,660 yuan/ton at night with a 0.37% change. ICE cotton 5 closed at 65.24 cents/pound with a - 0.03% change. Trading volume and positions of CF2605 increased, while CY2605's trading volume decreased and positions increased [1] - Warehouse Receipt Data: Zheng cotton's warehouse receipts increased by 202 to 12,152, and effective forecasts decreased by 180 to 610. Cotton yarn's warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 114, and effective forecasts decreased by 305 to 277 [1] - Spot Price Data: Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 230 yuan/ton to 16,764 yuan/ton, Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton increased by 200 yuan/ton to 16,683 yuan/ton. Some regions' spot prices decreased slightly, such as Shandong and Hebei. The 3128B index decreased by 65 yuan/ton to 16,668 yuan/ton. The Cotlook:A index increased by 0.45 cents/pound to 75.20 cents/pound. The price of pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count remained stable [1] - Spread Data: The CF5 - 9 spread's change was - 15, and the spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF605 increased by 40 to 1,250 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Domestic Cotton Spot: Cotton spot trading was mostly weak. Spot fixed - price quotes were few, and prices were gradually higher than imported cotton of the same quality. Basis quotes were generally stable. Different grades of cotton in Xinjiang had different price quotes and trading situations [2] - Domestic Cotton - Textile Enterprises: Pure - cotton yarn prices were stable with a slight increase. Market sentiment improved. Supported by raw material costs, spinning mills had a firm pricing attitude. Except for domestic low - count yarns, downstream weaving transactions increased compared to before, and the overall trading atmosphere improved [2] - US Cotton: ICE cotton futures rose first and then fell, closing down 0.03%. It lacked fundamental drivers and had light trading [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive view on the cotton market [5]