早间评论-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The market is affected by the Iran situation, and the volatility of various commodities is expected to increase [6][9]. - Different commodities have different market trends and investment suggestions, such as some commodities are expected to be bullish, some are expected to be bearish, and some are expected to be volatile [14][16][18]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The central bank conducted 265 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 140 billion yuan. The US CPI data was released. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond market is expected to face certain pressure, so it is necessary to be cautious [5][6]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economic recovery momentum is not strong, but the asset valuation is low, and the policy environment is favorable. However, due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for opportunities [8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - The previous trading day, gold rose and silver fell. In February 2026, global physical gold ETFs continued to flow in. The long - term logic of precious metals is still strong, but due to the uncertainty of the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, so it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.4 Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, the price is dominated by industrial supply - demand logic. The rebar price may rebound, but the space may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [13][14]. 3.5 Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The increase in iron ore demand may have a positive impact on prices, but the effect may be limited. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level long - position opportunities and manage positions [16]. 3.6 Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. In the short term, the Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect the sentiment of futures prices, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, and coke demand is under pressure. It is recommended that investors pay attention to low - level buying opportunities and manage positions [18]. 3.7 Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rose. The cost of ferroalloys is at a low level with limited downward space, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. After a rapid short - term price rebound, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [20]. 3.8 Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil fell sharply. The increase in net long positions in the US crude oil futures market shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has a significant impact on global energy supply, and the crude oil price still has support. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities in the crude oil main contract [21][22]. 3.9 Polyolefins - The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao was adjusted. The downstream factories of polyolefins resumed production, and the demand for replenishment increased. The cost support was enhanced, and the market sentiment improved. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities [24][25]. 3.10 Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The core driving force is the increase in crude oil prices due to the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, which drives up the cost of butadiene. There are maintenance plans for some devices in March. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [27][28]. 3.11 Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract rose. The escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict drives up the cost of synthetic rubber, increasing the expected substitution demand for natural rubber. The global main producing areas are in the low - production season, and the supply is tight. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [29][30]. 3.12 PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract rose. The core driving force is the game between the energy and raw material supply concerns caused by overseas geopolitical conflicts and the seasonal off - season when domestic spring demand has not fully started. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock [31][33]. 3.13 Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts and international supply - demand mismatches. The global urea production capacity has a hard gap, and China's domestic supply and demand are in a tight balance. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock in the short term [34][35]. 3.14 PX - The previous trading day, the PX2605 main contract rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit are compressed, and the downstream polyester and textile terminals are resuming work. PX is expected to enter the de - stocking channel. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations in the short term, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [36][37]. 3.15 PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA2605 main contract rose. The PTA processing fee is adjusted, and the supply - demand expectation in March may improve. It is expected to run strongly with PX and oil prices, but the price may be volatile, and caution is needed [38]. 3.16 Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term Middle East geopolitical situation is uncertain, and the cost may change sharply. The polyester industry chain is in a high - mood state. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations, but the high inventory may limit the increase [39][40]. 3.17 Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber 2604 main contract rose. The short - fiber supply is gradually increasing, the terminal factory inventory is basically maintained, and the loom load is slightly rising. It is still trading on the cost - side logic, and the market may be volatile, so caution is needed [41]. 3.18 Bottle Chips - The previous trading day, the bottle chips 2605 main contract rose. The bottle chips supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate is increasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to run strongly with fluctuations following the cost side, and caution is needed [42][44]. 3.19 Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main 2605 contract rose. The supply of soda ash is abundant, the demand is general, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to risk control [45][46]. 3.20 Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main 2605 contract rose. The glass industry is in the stage of active capacity reduction, the inventory is accumulating, and the demand recovery is slow. The cost support is expected to weaken, and the market is in a state of multi - empty game. Attention should be paid to position control [49][50]. 3.21 Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main 2605 contract rose. The supply of caustic soda is at a high level, and there are maintenance plans for some factories in March. The price has a certain support due to valuation repair and downstream profit transmission, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price and sales of liquid chlorine, export orders, and downstream price acceptance [51][52]. 3.22 Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main 2605 contract fell. The domestic pulp production may decrease, the port inventory is accumulating, and the downstream demand is weak. The price of softwood pulp fluctuates with the futures, and the cost of hardwood pulp has support, but the downstream demand has not followed up. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil and commodities, downstream paper mill procurement rhythm, and capital trends [53][54]. 3.23 Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply of lithium carbonate is decreasing. The consumption is in the off - season but not weak, and the inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase [55]. 3.24 Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract fell. The US - Iran situation is uncertain, and the domestic electrolytic copper production is restricted by raw materials and maintenance. The demand shows seasonal recovery, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate within a range [56][57]. 3.25 Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract rose. The alumina market is in a state of oversupply, and the geopolitical conflict affects the supply of bauxite. The domestic aluminum supply is increasing, but the inventory pressure is large. The aluminum price is expected to run strongly [59][60]. 3.26 Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract fell. The production of refined zinc is increasing moderately, the import is in a net inflow, the downstream consumption is expected to recover moderately, and the zinc price may be under pressure and fluctuate [61][62]. 3.27 Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract rose. The production of primary lead is gradually recovering, the production of secondary lead is slow to recover, and the battery enterprises are basically fully resumed. The lead price is expected to be in a consolidation state [63][64]. 3.28 Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract fell. The US - Iran conflict and the military conflict in Congo affect the supply of tin. The demand in the emerging fields supports the price, and the inventory is decreasing. The tin price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase [65][66]. 3.29 Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, and the nickel production cost is expected to rise. The downstream consumption is weak, and the refined nickel is in a state of over - supply. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [67]. 3.30 Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil rose. The USDA report slightly adjusted the global soybean production and inventory, and the soybean supply - demand balance is expected to improve. The domestic soybean import is slowing down, and the oil mill's profit is rising. If the Middle East conflict continues to rise, investors can consider taking profit on long positions [68][69]. 3.31 Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory decreased in February, and the export volume increased in March. The domestic palm oil is in a state of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see [70][71]. 3.32 Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed rose. China has adjusted the import tariff policy for Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are in a state of de - stocking. It is recommended to wait and see [72][74]. 3.33 Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng cotton increased in position and rose, but the upward space is limited. The USDA forum expects a global cotton production reduction in the new year, and the cotton price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [75][77]. 3.34 Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic Zheng sugar ran strongly with fluctuations. India's sugar production is expected to decrease, which is beneficial to the market sentiment. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the trend of crude oil [78][79]. 3.35 Apples - The previous trading day, apple futures fluctuated. The current spot market is stable, and the inventory is low and of poor quality. The apple price is expected to run strongly in the medium and long term [81][82]. 3.36 Pigs - The previous trading day, the main pig contract fell. The national pig price is in a state of grinding the bottom, the supply is abundant, and the consumption is weak. Attention should be paid to the slaughter volume, and short - selling opportunities at high prices can be considered [83][84]. 3.37 Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose. The egg supply in March is expected to remain at a high level, and the feed cost may increase. It is recommended to hold the remaining short positions [85]. 3.38 Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn and corn starch main contracts rose. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, the new - season corn cost may be revised down, and the wheat substitution effect may be strengthened. The corn price may face upward pressure in the short term, and put - option opportunities can be considered. Corn starch may follow the corn market [86][87]. 3.39 Logs - The previous trading day, the main log 2605 contract closed flat. The shipping cost of imported coniferous logs increased, and the downstream demand improved. The sentiment in the energy - chemical market eased, and the shipping cost support for the log market may weaken. Attention should be paid to the foreign - market quotation, shipping dynamics, and downstream terminal consumption [88][89].