2026智驾展望:向上升阶与向下平权的双轨渗透
Bank of China Securities·2026-03-12 02:45

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the industry, with specific stock recommendations including "Buy" for Zhongke Chuangda, Desay SV, Xiaoma Zhixing, and others, and "Hold" for Siwei Tuxin [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights that high-level intelligent driving (AD) is expected to create an independent growth track in 2026, unaffected by the pressures on the automotive industry's sales. The technology is entering a stable mass production phase, supported by favorable policies, leading to a gradual improvement in the industry chain [3][6]. - The penetration rate of high-level intelligent driving is expected to increase significantly, with L2+ level solutions projected to reach a market size of over 150 billion yuan by 2029, growing at a CAGR of 33.7% from 2024 to 2029 [6][8]. - The report emphasizes the emergence of a "driving equality" era, where third-party intelligent driving system companies and those focusing on cost-effective solutions are likely to benefit [3][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The automotive industry is expected to face challenges in 2026, with a weak outlook due to reduced subsidies, increased competition, and rising costs. However, high-level intelligent driving is becoming a crucial growth point, transitioning from an "add-on" to a "must-have" feature [6][25]. - The penetration rate of L2 level driving assistance features is projected to exceed 70% in 2026, with the first licenses for L3 level vehicles issued, paving the way for further advancements [26]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the intelligent driving market is evolving independently from traditional vehicle sales, with significant growth in commercial vehicles and specialized scenarios such as logistics and delivery [30][33]. - The global market for autonomous trucks is expected to grow from approximately 39.46 billion USD in 2024 to 86.78 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 10.6% [32][35]. Technological Advancements - High-level intelligent driving is driving demand for core hardware, including lidar and high-performance chips, leading to a positive cycle of cost reduction and increased demand [38]. - The software monetization model for intelligent driving is evolving, allowing for ongoing revenue generation beyond initial vehicle sales, enhancing resilience against industry cycles [38]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that companies focusing on third-party intelligent driving solutions and those offering cost-effective strategies for mainstream vehicles are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in the industry [3][6].