首席点评：地缘冲突扰动供应链，内需与通胀走势分化

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts are disrupting the global supply chain, with the Red Sea crisis and new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz causing shipping disruptions. The impact on global trade is substantial, and the situation in the region continues to escalate [1]. - Domestic automobile production and sales have declined both year - on - year and month - on - month, indicating that domestic demand recovery still faces pressure. The US core CPI remains stable, leaving room for monetary policy adjustment [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts and insufficient economic growth momentum are the main challenges for the current global economy. The stability of the supply chain and changes in terminal demand need continuous attention [1]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Key Varieties - Crude Oil: SC night trading rose 7%. The IEA announced the release of 400 million barrels of strategic reserves. There are differences in stances between the US and Iran regarding the end of military operations. The G7 energy ministers did not reach an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves. US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories decreased last week, with commercial crude oil inventories down 1.7 million barrels as of March 6, 2026 [2][13]. - European Line: EC rose 7.15%. Maersk's new cabin in the 13th week quotes a 20 - foot container to Rotterdam at $2200, while MSC slightly increased the price by $100 to $2740 in the second half of March. The average price of 20 - foot containers in the 12th week is around $2600, corresponding to an index of 1730 points. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][34]. - Stock Index: The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined. The previous trading day saw a rise in the stock index, with the coal sector leading the gain and the comprehensive sector leading the decline. The market turnover was 2.53 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 9.773 billion yuan on March 10. As annual and first - quarter reports are gradually disclosed, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, and the market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". In the long run, the stock index will return to domestic fundamentals and policies, and is expected to resume an upward trend after geopolitical risks ease [3][10]. 3.2 Daily News 3.2.1 International News - The UN Security Council passed Resolution 2817 on March 12, condemning Iran's attacks on multiple Gulf countries and demanding an immediate halt. Russia and China abstained. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have severely damaged multiple US military bases in the Gulf. US President Trump said the military operation against Iran is "about to end", and Israel's Foreign Minister said Israel does not seek an "endless war" with Iran [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - The People's Bank of China held a science and technology work meeting on March 11, 2026, summarizing 2025 work and deploying 2026 tasks. It emphasized promoting the application of artificial intelligence in the financial field in a safe and orderly manner [7]. 3.2.3 Industry News - In February 2026, automobile production and sales were 1.672 million and 1.805 million vehicles respectively, down 31.7% and 23.1% month - on - month, and 20.5% and 15.2% year - on - year. Automobile exports were 672,000 vehicles, down 1.4% month - on - month but up 52.4% year - on - year [8]. 3.3 External Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.08%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.98%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 2.44%, London gold decreased by 0.14%, London silver decreased by 2.96%, LME aluminum increased by 1.65%, LME copper decreased by 0.43%, LME zinc decreased by 0.75%, LME tin increased by 0.92%, ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.70%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.03%, CBOT soybeans increased by 1.29%, CBOT soybean meal increased by 1.41%, CBOT soybean oil increased by 4.15%, CBOT wheat remained unchanged, and CBOT corn increased by 1.95% [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties 3.4.1 Financial - Stock Index: The market will shift from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". Stocks without performance support may be weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index will return to domestic fundamentals and policies and is expected to resume an upward trend after geopolitical risks ease [10]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds fell slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year active bond rising to 1.8175%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 1.4 billion yuan. The US February 2026 non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, and the unemployment rate reached a new high since December 2025. Global risk - aversion sentiment increased due to the Middle East situation, pushing up inflation expectations and US bond yields. The domestic CPI and PPI increased more than expected. The government's bond issuance scale is large, and the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. Short - term treasury bond futures are supported, while long - term ones are under pressure [11][12]. 3.4.2 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Similar to the key varieties section, SC night trading rose 7%, and there are uncertainties in the end of the US - Iran military operation. The G7 has not reached an agreement on releasing strategic oil reserves, and US crude oil inventories decreased [13]. - Methanol: Methanol night trading rose 4.34%. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also decreased. Coastal methanol inventories increased, and the expected import volume from March 6 to 22 is 260,000 - 270,000 tons [14]. - Rubber: Natural rubber rebounded on Wednesday. It is in the low - production season, with domestic and Thai production areas in a state of suspension. The supply elasticity is weak, and raw rubber prices are relatively firm. Demand is expected to recover after the holiday, and the price is expected to be volatile and bullish [15]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin prices rebounded on Wednesday. The spot prices of PE and PP mostly rebounded. The Middle East situation is changeable, and the macro environment has a great impact on the chemical industry [16]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass and soda ash futures mostly rebounded. Glass production enterprise inventories increased after the long holiday, and soda ash production enterprise inventories also increased. There is pressure to digest inventories in both industries, and they should respond rationally to the macro impact [17][18]. 3.4.3 Metals - Precious Metals: Precious metals fluctuated and adjusted. The US February CPI was in line with expectations, and inflation expectations cooled after Trump's statement. In the long run, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, and de - dollarization [19]. - Copper: Copper prices rose 0.16% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point. The smelting output is still growing. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be noted [20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell 0.04% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the smelting output continued to grow. The galvanized sheet inventory is high. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand should be noted [21]. - Aluminum: Shanghai aluminum rose 0.68% at night. The US - Iran conflict poses risks to overseas primary aluminum supply. The Strait of Hormuz blockade may cause a regional supply crisis. In the short term, the market is driven by geopolitics, and in the long run, low inventories, supply constraints, and stable demand support the price [22]. - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term popularity of lithium carbonate has decreased. The conflict between Iran and Israel has little impact on it. The price will return to the supply - demand fundamentals in the long run and is expected to rise [23][24]. 3.4.4 Black Metals - Coking Coal and Coke: The main contracts of coking coal and coke fluctuated at night. The coking coal supply increased, and the iron - making output decreased due to environmental protection restrictions. The coking coal fundamentals weakened. As the resumption of work progresses, the iron - making output is expected to increase, supporting the price. Geopolitical factors may also push up the value of energy - related commodities [25]. - Steel: The Iran - Israel conflict has limited direct impact on domestic steel futures. The core driver of steel prices is domestic demand and the resumption of production of steel mills. The conflict indirectly supports the cost of raw materials, which may drive steel prices to stop falling in the short term, but the long - term trend will return to domestic supply - demand fundamentals [26]. - Iron Ore: The conflict mainly affects iron ore through short - term sentiment and cost support. It may reduce the supply and increase the import cost. The price may stop falling in the short term, and the high port inventory should be rationally viewed [27]. 3.4.5 Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: Bean and rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest progress is slower than the same period. The USDA report is neutral - bullish. The increase in shipping costs supports the price, but the abundant domestic soybean and meal inventories will limit the upward space in the medium term [28]. - Edible Oils: Edible oils fluctuated weakly at night. The Malaysian palm oil production, exports, and imports in February changed, and the inventory decreased less than expected. The weak export and falling crude oil prices dragged down the performance of edible oils, and the short - term price volatility is expected to be large [29][30]. - Hogs: The national hog market continued to adjust weakly. The supply decreased slightly, and the demand was stable. The breeding profit improved marginally [31]. - Sugar: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated in a range. The Iran situation may affect the ethanol - to - sugar price and the sugar - making ratio. The Brazilian production forecast may be adjusted, and the domestic sugar price is boosted by the external market [32]. - Cotton: Zhengzhou cotton futures rose and then fell, with the price center moving up. The Middle East situation has an impact, but the long - term supply - demand situation is tight, and the price may rise [33]. 3.4.6 Shipping Index - Container Shipping European Line: Similar to the key varieties section, EC rose 7.15%. Maersk quotes a lower price, and MSC slightly increased the price. As the short - term geopolitical impact eases, the European line is expected to return to seasonal pricing [3][34].