国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is affected by geopolitical conflicts; silver requires attention to liquidity contraction; the upward movement of the US dollar restricts the price increase of copper; zinc is in a range - bound oscillation; lead lacks driving forces and oscillates at a low level; tin is in an oscillatory adjustment; aluminum shows a strong - leaning oscillatory trend; the cost of alumina is rising; cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum; platinum follows the retracement of gold and silver; palladium oscillates at a low level; the tight ore supply of nickel supports the current situation, while the inventory accumulation in smelting restricts its upward potential; stainless steel is affected by macro - risk preferences, and the actual cost center has shifted upward [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 1,153.06, with a daily decline of 2.45%, and the night - session closing price was 1144.20, with a decline of 0.22%. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 418,498, an increase of 25,719 from the previous day, and the position was 126,419, a decrease of 13,351 [5]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation continued to cool down, with the CPI in February rising 2.4% year - on - year and the core CPI rising 2.5%, the smallest increase in nearly five years. Trump hinted that the military action against Iran was "about to end", and the IEA approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve [7]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0 [7]. Silver - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 21854, with a daily increase of 0.86%, and the night - session closing price was 21546.00, with an increase of 1.53%. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 526,514, a decrease of 187,374 from the previous day, and the position was 150,089, a decrease of 11,077 [5]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to gold, including US inflation data, Trump's remarks on Iran, and the IEA's release of crude oil reserves [7]. - Trend Intensity: Silver trend intensity is 0 [7]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 101,150, with a daily decline of 0.36%, and the night - session closing price was 101310, with an increase of 0.16%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 171,009, a decrease of 75,827 from the previous day, and the position was 585,403, a decrease of 2,930 [8]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation continued to cool down, and the IEA announced the release of a record - high crude oil reserve. The US made some progress in obtaining strategic minerals in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but faced challenges. Mongolia sought to renegotiate the "unfair" business terms of the Oyu Tolgoi copper mine, and Zambia aimed to triple its copper production by 2031 [8][10]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [10]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24385, with a daily decline of 0.12%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 74804, a decrease of 29887 from the previous day, and the position was 74220, a decrease of 527 [11]. - News: The IEA approved the release of a record - high 4 - billion - barrel crude oil reserve, and the Trump administration was reported to start a trade investigation [12][14]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [14]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16680, with a daily increase of 0.18%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 40968, a decrease of 5562 from the previous day, and the position was 61083, an increase of 2926 [15]. - News: US inflation continued to cool down, and the IEA announced the release of a record - high crude oil reserve. Trump tried to downplay the threat of mining in the Strait of Hormuz, but the market still worried about the Middle East situation [15]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [15]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 392,740, with a daily decline of 0.71%, and the night - session closing price was 391,610, with a decline of 1.37%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 239,265, a decrease of 49,429 from the previous day, and the position was 33,982, a decrease of 994 [18]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation continued to cool down, the IEA approved the release of a record - high crude oil reserve, and China's Ministry of National Defense called for an end to military actions in the Middle East [18][20]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is 0 [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25215, with an increase of 335 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2869, with an increase of 30 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23885, with an increase of 205 compared to T - 1 [21]. - Comprehensive News: US inflation continued to cool down, but the Middle East conflict led to an increase in oil prices, and the market expected the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The Iranian president proposed three conditions for ending the war [23]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 1; alumina trend intensity is 1; aluminum alloy trend intensity is 1 [23]. Platinum and Palladium - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of platinum futures 2606 was 565.55, with an increase of 0.53%. The closing price of palladium futures 2606 was 424.25, with an increase of 0.17% [25]. - Macro and Industry News: US inflation data met market expectations, Trump said the war with Iran would end soon, and the IEA released 4 billion barrels of emergency oil reserves [28]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is 0; palladium trend intensity is 0 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,160, with an increase of 110 compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,215, with a decrease of 10 compared to T - 1 [29]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesia planned to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore, some nickel mines in different regions had production - related news such as restarts, suspensions, and production quota adjustments [29][30][34]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36].