华宝期货晨报铁矿石-20260312

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term domestic expected drivers are realized as expected, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore continues to accumulate, supply maintains high growth year - on - year, iron ore demand is still restricted by industrial chain profits, the futures market trades on the logic of Iranian supply disturbances and rising shipping costs, resulting in a continuous weakening of the basis. Coupled with the continuous weakening of the steel industry chain, there is great upward pressure. It is recommended to participate in the positive spread. The expected price range is 100 - 104 US dollars/ton (61% index), corresponding to 760 - 790 yuan/ton for Dalian iron ore futures. The strategy is to conduct range operations and sell call options [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Current overseas ore shipments have emerged from the off - season, with off - season shipments showing above - seasonal growth and being at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. Short - term shipments from Australia and Brazil have decreased to some extent due to maintenance. There are concerns about the impact of US - Iran geopolitical factors on Iran's global iron ore supply, and there are also transfer pressures from other countries. Domestic ore supply is expected to enter a seasonal recovery cycle. Overall, short - term supply pressure remains high, providing downward drivers [1] Demand - Domestic iron ore demand mainly depends on steel mill profit levels and the degree of steel inventory reduction. The probability of super - expected growth in terminal demand is low. Later, attention should be paid to the nodes of steel inventory reduction and the intensity of resumption of work. Environmental protection restrictions in North China are about to be lifted, with replenishment demand, but considering the current low profit levels of steel mills and weak demand expectations, the upward driving force for demand is weak [1][2] Inventory - Steel mills maintain a low - inventory operation mode, with cautious procurement and short - term replenishment demand. Current port inventories are still in the process of accumulation, and short - term port inventories remain under high pressure, with inventory drivers tending to be downward [2]