2026年03月12日申万期货品种策略日报-铂、钯-20260312

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish view on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for being bullish on platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensifying due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The short - term disturbances do not change the long - term bullish logic [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610): Current prices are 565.55, 563.85, 561.60 respectively. Price changes are - 1.05, 1.35, 5.00 with corresponding changes of - 0.19%, 0.24%, 0.90%. The trading volume is 5652, 271, 53 respectively, and the open interest is 12903 for each [1] - Palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610): Current prices are 424.25, 423.50, 419.80 respectively. Price changes are - 0.30, - 0.05, - 3.20 with corresponding changes of - 0.07%, - 0.01%, - 0.76%. The trading volume is 1547, 40, 8 respectively, and the open interest is 4384 for each [1] 3.2 Spot Market - Platinum: Shanghai platinum's price change was - 2.05 with a change of - 0.004%, London platinum's price change was - 18.00 with a change of - 0.008%, Zhou Dafu's platinum price change was 5.00 with a change of 0.006%, and Lao Feng Xiang's platinum price remained unchanged [1] - Palladium: China palladium's price change was - 2.00 with a change of - 0.005%, and Russian palladium's price change was 83.52 with a change of 0.020% [1] 3.3 Inventory - Platinum: NYMEX inventory remained unchanged at 582,440.79 ounces. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 313,567.94 ounces. The gold exchange's trading volume decreased by 12.0 kilograms, and the trading value decreased by 674.3 ten thousand yuan [1] - Palladium: NYMEX inventory decreased by 419.5 ounces to 204,678.02 ounces, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 162,278.54 ounces [1] 3.4 Related Derivatives and Indexes - Related indexes: The US dollar index increased by 0.32 to 99.26, the S&P 500 index decreased by 5.68 to 6,775.80, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.06 to 4.21, the Nasdaq index increased by 19.03 to 22,716.13, the Dow Jones index decreased by 289.24 to 47,417.27, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate decreased by 0.01 to 6.89 [1] - Related derivatives: The price of Shanghai Gold 2604, 2606, 2608 increased by 1.98, 2.36, 2.64 respectively, and the price of Shanghai Silver 2604, 2606, 2608 decreased by 503, 502, 484 respectively [1] 3.5 Macro News - Geopolitical: The US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, causing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [2] - Fed personnel: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair. However, some senators oppose the nomination. Warsh's policy stance is dovish but not as expected [2] - Fed policy: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts, in line with market expectations. Fed chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point rate cut [2] - Chinese central bank policy: The People's Bank of China held a payment and settlement work meeting in 2026, aiming to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system [3] 3.6 Reasons for the Bullish View - Macro factors: The judicial investigation of Powell shakes the US dollar's credit. The global central bank gold - buying wave continues, highlighting the reserve value of platinum and palladium. Geopolitical risks in Greenland provide support, and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in June remains [4] - Industry factors: There is a clear supply - demand gap for platinum due to increased hydrogen energy demand and South African production constraints. Palladium has a rigid supply, and demand is supported by hybrid vehicle demand and strict emission policies, resulting in a tight spot balance [4]