光大期货能化商品日报（2026年3月12日）-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is in a state of high volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with the situation in the Strait of Hormuz being a key factor. The release of strategic oil reserves aims to stabilize the market, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Different energy and chemical products show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals and geopolitical impacts [1][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views 3.1.1 Crude Oil - On Wednesday, oil prices rebounded. The WTI April contract rose $3.8 to $87.25 per barrel, a 4.55% increase; the Brent May contract rose $4.18 to $91.98 per barrel, a 4.76% increase; SC2604 closed at 695 yuan per barrel, up 45.8 yuan or 7.05%. Geopolitical tensions remain, and the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked. The IEA members have agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic oil reserves, and the US President will also use the US strategic oil reserve. OPEC + production in February averaged 42.72 million barrels per day, an increase of 445,000 barrels per day from January. Russian production in February decreased slightly by about 56,000 barrels per day to 9.184 million barrels per day. The oil market is in a state of medium - low intensity confrontation, with high volatility remaining the norm [1][3] 3.1.2 Fuel Oil - On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE declined. The high - sulfur fuel oil main contract FU2605 fell 4.87% to 4,318 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2605 fell 1.33% to 5,050 yuan per ton. The decline has narrowed. The dependence of major refineries on Middle Eastern crude is high, and the impact on refinery operations will gradually appear. For local refineries, there are sufficient stocks until May, but the raw material gap may widen after June. As of March 11, the operating rate of local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 68.63%, down 0.52 percentage points from last week [3] 3.1.3 Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2604 on the SHFE rose 1.07% to 3,874 yuan per ton, stopping the decline. This week, the social inventory rate was 33.59%, up 0.83% month - on - month; the domestic refinery asphalt total inventory level was 28.49%, down 0.46% month - on - month; the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 24.89%, down 6.37%. The geopolitical conflict restricts the procurement of heavy crude oil by local refineries, and the raw material cost is rising. However, the terminal demand for road infrastructure has not started, so the asphalt market is in a game between "strong cost" and "weak demand" [3][5] 3.1.4 Polyester Chain - The polyester chain rose sharply overnight. The paraxylene futures main contract hit the daily limit, closing at 10,218 yuan per ton. The TA605 contract closed at 6,660 yuan per ton during the day session, up 7.42%; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,577 yuan per ton, up 6.32%. The export of paraxylene from South Korea increased. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are still sluggish. The operating rate of domestic ethylene - cracking ethylene glycol enterprises has decreased, and the operating rate of Asian naphtha cracking plants has also been lowered. The polyester chain is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [5][7] 3.1.5 Rubber - On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE rose. The main RU2605 contract rose 65 yuan per ton to 17,180 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 13,720 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 680 yuan per ton to 15,615 yuan per ton. In February, China's automobile production and sales decreased. The import of natural and synthetic rubber from January to February decreased by 1.4% year - on - year. The export of rubber from Cote d'Ivoire decreased slightly. The synthetic rubber price rebounded following the cost. The natural rubber is likely to start tapping in mid - to - late March in China. The rubber market is expected to fluctuate [7] 3.1.6 Methanol - On Wednesday, the spot price of methanol in Taicang was 2,660 yuan per ton, and the price in Inner Mongolia's north line was 2,085 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level shock, and the overseas supply from Iran remains low. The demand is also at a low level. The arrival of goods in March will continue to decline, which will support the price. However, the low load of MTO units will put pressure on inventory reduction [8] 3.1.7 Polyolefins - On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 8,100 - 8,400 yuan per ton. The supply of polyolefins is expected to decrease as upstream device maintenance plans increase. The demand from downstream factories is increasing. The market is in a de - stocking stage, and the fundamental pressure is not large. Short - term geopolitical risks increase volatility [8] 3.1.8 Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Wednesday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China increased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based PVC, but the profit of the calcium - carbide - based PVC is strengthening rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover. The PVC market is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [9] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The document provides the daily data monitoring of various energy and chemical products, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes. For example, the spot price of Oman crude in the Pacific Rim was 792.11 yuan per barrel on March 11, and the futures price of SC was 649.20 yuan per barrel, with a basis of 142.91 yuan per barrel and a basis rate of 22.01% [10] 3.3 Market News - The US military threatens to attack Iranian civilian ports along the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran responds that all regional ports will become "legitimate targets" if its ports and docks are threatened. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran states that the Strait of Hormuz is under its strict control. The EIA inventory report shows that US commercial crude inventories increased by 3.8 million barrels to 443.1 million barrels as of March 6, and the inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, and along the US Gulf Coast reached their highest levels in recent years [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The document shows the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][16][18] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The basis charts of main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc., are presented, showing the basis changes over time [29][30][33] 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The inter - period contract spread charts of various products, including fuel oil, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc., are provided, reflecting the price differences between different contracts [39][40][41] 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - The inter - variety spread charts, such as the spread between domestic and international crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, and the spread between ethylene glycol and PTA, are shown [54][56][60] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The production profit and processing fee charts of various products, including LLDPE, PP, PTA, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol, are presented [63][64] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures energy and chemical research team, including the deputy director Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [68][69][70]