氧化铝运费上涨出厂价格相对稳定

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The easing of the US-Iran crisis led to a limited retracement of the previous risk premium in aluminum prices. Overseas supply remains tight, and the supply-demand gap overseas has widened. The upward trend of electricity prices persists, leaving room for aluminum prices to rise. The domestic downstream has resumed production, and export data shows high growth [6]. - In the alumina spot market, the arrival price has increased due to rising freight, while the northern ex-factory price remains stable. The overall domestic supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and social inventories are still rising [7][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On March 11, 2026, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 25,030 yuan/ton, with a change of 560 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium/discount was -130 yuan/ton, with a change of -10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum was 24,890 yuan/ton, and the spot premium/discount changed by -20 yuan/ton to -270 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 24,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 530 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium/discount changed by -35 yuan/ton to -205 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,950 yuan/ton, closed at 25,215 yuan/ton, with a change of 510 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,390 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,930 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 317,398 lots, and the position was 212,126 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of March 11, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.271 million tons, with a change of 15,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 350,691 tons, with a change of 9,428 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 450,125 tons, with a change of -2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On March 11, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,670 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,630 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,705 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,839 yuan/ton, closed at 2,869 yuan/ton, with a change of 22 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 0.77%. The highest price reached 2,879 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,823 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 354,506 lots, and the position was 288,252 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 11, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,700 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,100 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation for ADC12 was 24,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 62,500 tons, and the in-plant inventory was 83,600 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5].