乙烯法降负预期提升

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Bullish with fluctuations; Cross - period - Go long on the V05 - 09 spread at low levels; Cross - variety - None [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Bullish with fluctuations; Cross - period - Wait - and - see; Cross - variety - None [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: After the cancellation of the export tax rebate on April 1st, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the overseas cracking units have reduced their loads. The supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC has tightened, and the export prospects have improved with a sharp rise in export prices. Some domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply limitations, with an increasing expectation of load reduction. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved, and the load may increase. Although the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the social inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure in March will be effectively alleviated. The market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts, export orders, and enterprise load changes [3] - Caustic Soda: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali plants may reduce their loads, increasing the domestic export inquiries. The load reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises has increased the expectation of load reduction for integrated caustic soda. The supply is slightly increasing, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has increased, but the long - term demand from the aluminum oxide industry is under pressure. The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and attention should be paid to export orders, the price trend of 32% caustic soda, and price fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5571 yuan/ton (+342); the East China basis is - 271 yuan/ton (-192); the South China basis is 29 yuan/ton (-82) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5300 yuan/ton (+150); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5600 yuan/ton (+260) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+150); the calcium carbide profit is 42 yuan/ton (+150); the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC is - 159 yuan/ton (+279); the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC is - 283 yuan/ton (-294); the PVC export profit is 97.9 US dollars/ton (+122.7) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 45.8 tons (-4.6); the social inventory is 63.6 tons (+2.0); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.41% (-1.36%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.24% (-3.16%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.42% (-1.93%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 89.0 tons (+11.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas and some domestic ethylene - based PVC plants may reduce their loads. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved, and the load may increase [3] - Demand: The downstream operation rate is gradually recovering, but the social inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure in March is large. However, with the improvement of export and downstream recovery, the inventory pressure will be alleviated [3] - Cost: The cost pressure of ethylene - based PVC is increasing due to the reduction of overseas naphtha cracking units [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2483 yuan/ton (+156); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 436 yuan/ton (-156) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 655 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1110 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1039 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 563.7 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 371.66 yuan/ton (-50); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1519.32 yuan/ton (+652.53) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants is 55.00 tons (+0.91); the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 3.80 tons (-0.60); the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.40% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of aluminum oxide is 82.62% (-0.10%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 42.46% (+18.12%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 90.09% (+1.66%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: The operation rate is slightly increasing, and the enterprises planned for maintenance in March may change [3] - Demand: The non - aluminum industries' demand has increased after the holiday, but the demand from the aluminum oxide industry is under pressure [3] - Cost: The cost support of caustic soda is weakening due to the increase in the price of liquid chlorine [3]