厂内库存去库，市场情绪较好

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Oscillation [3] - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Urea spot ex - factory quotes have reached the March guidance price, and the domestic market is in a crucial period of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices during the spring plowing. The spot price of urea remains stable. When the urea futures price strengthens, spot traders actively enter the market to purchase, and spot transactions improve. [2] - The supply has increased as some gas - based and technical - renovation enterprises have resumed production, and some off - season reserves will be released in March. After the Spring Festival, the demand for top - dressing fertilizer has gradually increased, the operating rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded, and as it approaches the terminal fertilizer - using period, market sentiment has improved, and sales volume has increased. Some melamine plants have temporarily shut down, with a decrease in operating rate and rigid - demand procurement. [2] - Affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the sentiment in the futures market is strong, driving the improvement of the spot trading sentiment. Factory inventories are being depleted, while port inventories are slightly increasing. The situation in Iran has caused a sharp increase in international urea prices, but there is no new news about domestic export quotas, and the high overseas urea prices cannot be effectively transmitted to the domestic market. [2] - Continued attention should be paid to export dynamics, the rhythm of off - season reserve release, and the sustainability of spot purchasing sentiment. [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - The report presents data on Shandong and Henan urea small - particle prices, Henan basis, urea main contract closing price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread, with data sources from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [1][7][9][14] 2. Urea Output - The report shows urea weekly output and urea plant maintenance loss volume, sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [24] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes information on urea production cost, production profit, on - disk production profit, urea capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization rate, with data from Longzhong and Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [22][29][32] 4. Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - The report provides data on urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle and large - particle FOB in China, the difference between Baltic Sea FOB and China FOB, the difference between Southeast Asian CFR and China FOB, export profit, and on - disk export profit, sourced from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [36][40][48] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - The report shows the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders, with data from Longzhong and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [49][50] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report presents data on factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, urea warehouse receipt quantity, urea main contract holding volume, and urea main contract trading volume, sourced from Longzhong, Flush, and the Huatai Futures Research Institute [53][57][62]