农产品日报（2026 年3 月12日）-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The corn market is expected to oscillate. The spot price of corn is stronger than the futures price. The supply in the market remains tight, and the price in the sales area has slightly decreased. After the profit - taking of long positions, attention should be paid to the impact of policy trends on the grain market [1]. - Soybean Meal: The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. The CBOT soybean price increased due to the impact of the US - Iran war on supply. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the foreign market, and the 5 - 9 spread has significantly narrowed. A short - term long strategy is recommended [1]. - Oils: The price of oils is expected to rise. The BMD palm oil price rebounded following the US soybean oil and crude oil prices. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in early March, but new export orders slowed down. The domestic oils are running strongly, and long positions are recommended to be held [1]. - Eggs: The price of eggs is expected to rise. The egg futures price increased slightly, and the spot price is stable with minor adjustments in some areas. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to changes in supply data and market sentiment [1]. - Pigs: The price of pigs is expected to oscillate and strengthen. The pig futures price adjusted with a slight decline, and the spot price is weak. The supply is sufficient, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and supply - side impacts on the futures market [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: On Wednesday, the corn main 2605 contract stabilized at the support of the 10 - day moving average. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is stable and slightly stronger, and deep - processing enterprises have raised the purchase price. The price in North China is generally stable. The supply in the market is tight, and the price in the sales area has slightly decreased. Feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, and the trading is light. After the profit - taking of long positions, attention should be paid to policy trends [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Wednesday, the CBOT soybean price rose due to concerns about supply disruptions caused by the US - Iran war. The 3 - month supply - demand report had little impact. The domestic soybean meal futures followed the foreign market, and the 5 - 9 spread narrowed. A short - term long strategy is recommended [1]. - Oils: On Wednesday, the BMD palm oil price rose following the US soybean oil and crude oil prices. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased in early March, but new export orders slowed down due to the increase in shipping and insurance costs. The domestic oils are running strongly, and long positions are recommended to be held [1]. - Eggs: On Wednesday, the egg futures main 2605 contract rose 0.76% to 3438 yuan/500 kg. The spot price is stable with minor adjustments in some areas. A short - term trading strategy is recommended, and attention should be paid to changes in supply data and market sentiment [1]. - Pigs: On Wednesday, the pig futures price adjusted with a 0.09% decline to 11170 yuan/ton. The spot price is weak, and the supply is sufficient. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and supply - side impacts on the futures market [2]. Market Information - Geopolitical Negotiations: The US and Iran have differences on four core issues, including the scope of negotiation, uranium enrichment, sanctions, and the premise of dialogue [3]. - Supply Blockade: Blocking the Strait of Hormuz has a greater impact on the crude oil market than the war itself. About 1500 - 2000 million barrels of crude oil transportation are affected daily, and 99% of Qatar's LNG export channels are basically cut off [3]. - Passive Production Cuts: Gulf countries are facing a "storage full" crisis. Iraq has been forced to cut production by nearly 1.5 million barrels per day, and the production cut may double in the future [4]. - Market Trends and Forecasts: The short - term crude oil market is strong, but there is a dispute over the duration of the strait blockade, resulting in a large discount of far - month contracts to near - month contracts. Oil prices may have three development paths depending on the situation of the conflict [4]. - Market Views: The current rise in oil prices is mainly due to the re - pricing of supply security in the Middle East. The short - term volatility of the crude oil market will remain high, and attention should be paid to the situation in the strait and the responses of major oil - producing countries [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: Charts show the 5 - 9 spreads of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [6][8][9][11]. - Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [14][17][19][25].