光大期货软商品日报（2026 年3月12日）-20260312

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: On Wednesday, ICE U.S. cotton fell 0.09% to 65.24 cents per pound, while the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose 1.5% to 15,515 yuan per ton. The position of the main contract increased by 21,848 lots to 743,500 lots. The spot price index of cotton 3128B was 16,650 yuan per ton, up 220 yuan from the previous day. Overseas geopolitical conflicts continue, affecting market expectations. The U.S. cotton futures price has a relatively narrow amplitude. The USDA March report increased the global cotton production forecast for the 2025/26 season by 246,000 tons, with China's production and consumption both increasing by 109,000 tons. The end - of - season inventory remains unchanged, and the inventory - to - sales ratio decreased. Exports of textile yarn, fabrics, and clothing in January - February had double - digit year - on - year growth. In the short term, the market is affected by the Middle East situation, and in the long term, as new cotton planting is about to start, attention should be paid to the expected difference in planting area. The short - term trend is wide - range oscillation, and there is support in the long term with potential upside [2]. - Sugar: The spot price of sugar in Guangxi decreased by 20 - 30 yuan per ton, Yunnan remained flat, and the price of processed sugar decreased by 10 - 20 yuan per ton. The raw sugar futures price declined again, closing near 14.2 cents per pound. The impact of crude oil persists, and the situation in the Middle East should be closely monitored. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs maintains the sugar production estimate at 1.17 million tons, while information agencies have raised it to 1.2 million tons. Basis trading is still active, with a bumper harvest and macro - level disturbances coexisting. Before the regional situation becomes clear, the market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended that hedging positions be held, and speculative trading should be cautious [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - Cotton: ICE U.S. cotton fell, Zhengzhou cotton rose, and the position of the main contract increased. The USDA report adjusted the production and consumption of global and Chinese cotton. Exports of textile products were good. The short - term market is affected by the Middle East situation, and the long - term trend depends on new cotton planting [2]. - Sugar: The spot price of sugar decreased in some regions, and the raw sugar futures price declined. The production estimate has different views. Basis trading is active, and the market is expected to be volatile [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 5 - 9 spread was - 15, up 45; the main contract basis was 1,153, down 260. The spot price in Xinjiang was 16,483 yuan per ton, down 73, and the national average was 16,668 yuan per ton, down 65 [3]. - Sugar: The 5 - 9 spread was - 23, down 8; the main contract basis was 7, down 34. The spot price in Nanning was 5,420 yuan per ton, down 20, and in Liuzhou was 5,430 yuan per ton, down 20 [3]. Market Information - Cotton: On March 11, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts increased by 202 to 12,152, with 610 valid forecasts. The arrival prices of cotton in different regions were reported. The yarn comprehensive load increased, and the inventory decreased. The short - fiber cloth comprehensive load increased, and the inventory decreased [4]. - Sugar: On March 11, the spot price of sugar in Nanning and Liuzhou decreased by 20 yuan per ton. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts increased by 412 to 16,342, with 684 valid forecasts [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including the closing price, basis, spread, and warehouse receipts of cotton and sugar, showing the historical trends of these indicators [7][9][11][13][15][16]