生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the Zhengzhou sugar main contract can consider buying on dips. The supply - demand fundamentals of domestic sugar are improving, and the Brazilian new crushing season and weather need attention. [4] - For pulp, overseas supply has positive news, and cost and freight increase expectations support prices, but the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the rebound height is restricted. [4][5] - Double - offset paper is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and the upward driving force of cost is temporarily weak. [6][7] - The external cotton market is expected to bottom out and rebound, and the domestic cotton price has medium - term support. The future rise requires resonance between the external market and downstream consumption. [8] - Apple prices are expected to maintain a high - level range, and the focus of market game will shift to consumption expectations and new - season weather. [10] - Red dates are in bottom - range fluctuations, and the futures price has changed from a high premium to a discount to the spot price. [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Apple 2605: Recommend reducing long positions on rallies. The supply side provides support, and the price is expected to remain in a high - level range. Support is 9000 - 9200, and resistance is 11000 - 11500. [20] - Red dates 2605: Recommend short - term buying on dips. The expected production reduction may gradually appear in the far - month contracts, and the spot inventory has started to peak and decline. Support is 8700 - 9000, and resistance is 9500 - 9800. [20] - Sugar 2605: Recommend a bullish operation. The international sugar supply surplus situation has improved, and the southern sugar mills in China are starting to reduce production, with improving supply - demand fundamentals. Support is 5300 - 5320, and resistance is 5600 - 5650. [20] - Pulp 2605: Recommend shorting on rallies. The rise in the external market of broad - leaf pulp drives the pulp futures to strengthen, but the peak - season demand for finished paper needs verification, and the supply - demand improvement of bleached softwood kraft pulp is limited. Support is 5130 - 5200, and resistance is 5350 - 5400. [20] - Double - offset paper 2605: Recommend range - bound operation. The spot market is stable, but demand has entered the off - season. Short - term attention should be paid to the support situation after the disk further declines and the basis widens. Support is 4000 - 4100, and resistance is 4250 - 4300. [20] - Cotton 2605: Recommend holding long positions cautiously. The long - term positive expectations remain, and the medium - term support has not changed. However, the rise of the external market price has not been confirmed, and the internal - external price difference restricts the domestic price. The short - term price may continue to consolidate. Support is 14000 - 14200, and resistance is 15800 - 16000. [20] 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes 3.2.1 Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%. As of March 5, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 470,520 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 239,600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 316,700 tons. [21] - Spot Market: In Shandong, the price of high - quality late - maturing bagged Fuji apples is stable, and there are more foreign traders purchasing medium - and small - sized fruits. In Shaanxi, the mainstream price is stable, and the number of merchants has increased, mainly purchasing high - quality goods. In the sales areas, the arrival of goods has increased, and the mainstream price remains stable. [21][22][23] 3.2.2 Red Dates Market As of March 5, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 11,817 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 35 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%, and a year - on - year increase of 8.04%. The market is slowly recovering after the Spring Festival, and the downstream replenishment is average, with a slow de - stocking speed. [24] 3.2.3 Sugar Market - The market's expectation of the Middle East military conflict is fluctuating, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and crude oil supply. - As of March 11, 8 sugar mills in Guangxi have shut down in the 2025/26 crushing season, 50 less than the same period last year, with a shutdown capacity of 60,000 tons per day, 426,000 tons per day less than the same period last year. - The estimated cost of processing Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4035 yuan/ton, and the estimated cost outside the quota is 5126 yuan/ton. - India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season may be 28.3 million tons, a 4.4% reduction from the previous estimate. - The ISO predicts that the global sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will be 181.29 million tons, a 480,000 - ton reduction from the previous prediction. - Datagro estimates that there will be a supply gap of 800,000 tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. - As of March 3, 2026, the non - commercial net long position of ICE sugar was - 245,034 contracts. [26] 3.2.4 Pulp Market After the Spring Festival, the price of South American BHK pulp increased by $10 per ton to $590 - 600 per ton. Sellers plan to raise the price by another $20 per ton in March. The terminal users' resistance is increasing, and the domestic market transaction is weak, with port inventory increasing by 205,000 tons. The prices of Canadian and Nordic NBSK pulp remain stable. [28] 3.2.5 Double - offset Paper Market Last Thursday, the inventory days of double - offset paper decreased by 2.05% compared with the previous Thursday, and the decline rate narrowed by 0.40 percentage points this week. The industry's overall de - stocking speed has decreased. The operating load rate this week is 57.43%, a month - on - month increase of 0.07 percentage points, and the increase rate narrowed by 0.67 percentage points. [29] 3.2.6 Cotton Market - The USDA's March report shows that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase by 247,000 tons to 26.343 million tons, and consumption is expected to decrease by 30,000 tons to 25.817 million tons. The ending inventory will increase by 278,000 tons to 16.631 million tons. - In February, Vietnam's cotton imports were 104,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 39.6%. [30] 3.3 Third Part: Market Review 3.3.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | 10236 | - 67 | - 0.65% | | Red dates 2605 | 9140 | 155 | 1.73% | | Sugar 2605 | 5423 | 14 | 0.26% | | Pulp 2605 | 5260 | 16 | 0.31% | | Cotton 2605 | 15515 | 195 | 1.27% | [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 | | Red dates (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5420 | - 20 | - 640 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5280 | - 20 | - 1270 | | Double - offset paper (Taiyang Tianyang - Tianjin) | 4350 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 16668 | - 65 | 1775 | [36] 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information is provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 5 - 10 | 1579 | - 77 | 1965 | Bullish consolidation | Buy on dips | | Red dates | 5 - 9 | - 395 | - 25 | 35 | Sell in a bear spread | Wait and see | | Sugar | 5 - 9 | - 25 | - 3 | - 182 | Fluctuating | Wait and see | | Cotton | 5 - 9 | - 15 | 45 | 155 | Bearish consolidation | Sell on rallies | [59] 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Position Situation No specific summary information is provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Red dates | 4027 | - 4 | - 1726 | | Sugar | 16342 | 412 | - 11792 | | Pulp | 170311 | 1741 | - 201820 | | Cotton | 12152 | 202 | 3684 | [91] 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information is provided in the text, only relevant figures are mentioned.