美国2月CPI点评：TACO落空，滞胀隐现

Inflation Overview - The February CPI in the U.S. recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Year-on-year CPI growth remained stable at 2.4%, unchanged from January[2] Sector Contributions - Food prices increased by 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9% in January, with household food prices rising by 2.6%[12] - Energy prices showed a year-on-year increase of 0.4%, with gasoline prices down by 5.6% compared to the previous year[12] - Core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.5%, consistent with January, indicating a slowdown in core inflation[12] Economic Risks - The primary concern is the risk of inflation resurgence due to energy price shocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[4] - The market is pricing in potential stagflation risks, with signs of weakening demand and cooling job data[5][14] Future Outlook - The February inflation data does not yet reflect recent oil price fluctuations, which may exert upward pressure on inflation in the coming months[5] - The expectation is for 1-2 interest rate cuts in the third and fourth quarters of the year, contingent on inflation trends[5][15]