申万期货品种策略日报——股指-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The previous trading day saw the stock index mostly rising, with the coal sector leading the gains and the comprehensive sector leading the losses. The market turnover reached 2.53 trillion yuan. Starting from March, as listed companies gradually disclose their annual and first - quarter reports, industry leaders with strong performance certainty will attract funds, driving the market from "expectation - driven" to "profit - driven". The market will shift from "across - the - board rise" to "selective alpha" stage, where pure concept stocks without performance support and small - and medium - cap stocks may continue to be weak, while policy - beneficiary and performance - improving sectors may have sustainable opportunities. In the long run, the stock index trend will still depend on domestic fundamentals and policies, and it is expected to return to an oscillating upward trend after the geopolitical risks ease [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - IF Contracts: The closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4687.00, 4668.00, 4621.20, and 4546.60 respectively. The price increases were 21.80, 20.40, 21.00, and 16.00, with corresponding increases of 0.47, 0.44, 0.46, and 0.35. The trading volumes were 51049.00, 3793.00, 19147.00, and 6823.00, and the open interests were 107580.00, 12759.00, 102302.00, and 44564.00. The changes in open interests were - 6906.00, 275.00, 1775.00, and 203.00 [1] - IH Contracts: The closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 2983.80, 2983.40, 2977.00, and 2938.20 respectively. The price increases were 1.40, 4.20, 3.00, and 2.20, with corresponding increases of 0.05, 0.14, 0.10, and 0.07. The trading volumes were 19995.00, 2585.00, 8117.00, and 2524.00, and the open interests were 48141.00, 6417.00, 33041.00, and 16683.00. The changes in open interests were - 2450.00, 78.00, 6.00, and 321.00 [1] - IC Contracts: The closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8360.00, 8316.80, 8199.40, and 8038.40 respectively. The price decreases were - 25.00, - 26.80, - 28.40, and - 28.20, with corresponding decreases of - 0.30, - 0.32, - 0.35, and - 0.35. The trading volumes were 60985.00, 7743.00, 35019.00, and 13821.00, and the open interests were 97524.00, 17751.00, 116727.00, and 58423.00. The changes in open interests were - 9850.00, 343.00, 2907.00, and 2011.00 [1] - IM Contracts: The closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8313.00, 8245.00, 8089.20, and 7886.20 respectively. The price changes were 4.60, - 8.20, - 11.00, and - 13.00, with corresponding changes of 0.06, - 0.10, - 0.14, and - 0.16. The trading volumes were 89616.00, 12166.00, 38657.00, and 15285.00, and the open interests were 133840.00, 27430.00, 129804.00, and 76690.00. The changes in open interests were - 6381.00, 4785.00, 854.00, and 126.00 [1] - Inter - month Spreads: The current inter - month spreads of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 19.00, - 0.40, - 43.20, and - 68.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 17.60, - 1.00, - 38.60, and - 54.00 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - Major Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, Shanghai 50 Index, China Securities 500 Index, and China Securities 1000 Index were 4704.50, 2985.34, 8403.33, and 8363.53 respectively, with increases of 0.64, 0.12, - 0.08, and 0.16. The trading volumes (in billions of hands) were 270.18, 56.03, 264.49, and 321.74, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5795.64, 1224.47, 4957.52, and 5492.67 [1] - Industry Indexes: Among industries, energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption had increases of 1.98%, 0.60%, 1.89%, and 1.04% respectively; major consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology had increases of 0.19%, - 0.36%, 0.66%, and - 0.52% respectively; telecommunications services and public utilities had increases of 0.09% and 1.44% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of IF current month - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, IF next month - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, IF next quarter - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and IF the quarter after next - Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 were - 17.50, - 36.50, - 83.30, and - 157.90 respectively; the previous values of IH current month - Shanghai 50, IH next month - Shanghai 50, IH next quarter - Shanghai 50, and IH the quarter after next - Shanghai 50 were - 1.54, - 1.94, - 8.34, and - 47.14 respectively; the previous values of IC current month - China Securities 500, IC next month - China Securities 500, IC next quarter - China Securities 500, and IC the quarter after next - China Securities 500 were - 43.33, - 86.53, - 203.93, and - 364.93 respectively; the previous values of IM current month - China Securities 1000, IM next month - China Securities 1000, IM next quarter - China Securities 1000, and IM the quarter after next - China Securities 1000 were - 50.53, - 118.53, - 274.33, and - 477.33 respectively [1] 4. Other Major Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Domestic Indexes: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4133.43, 14465.41, 8836.69, and 3349.53 respectively, with increases of 0.25%, 0.78%, 0.73%, and 1.31% [1] - Overseas Indexes: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 25898.76, 55025.37, 6775.80, and 23640.03 respectively, with changes of - 0.24%, 1.43%, - 0.08%, and - 1.37% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference concluded on the morning of March 11th, and the closing meeting of the Fourth Session of the 14th National People's Congress will be held at 3 pm on March 12th, with several resolutions to be voted on [2] - Wind upgraded Alice 27, launching an intelligent financial operating system, allowing financial practitioners to have "multiple roles" and "unlimited clones" [2] - US - Iran military situation: Trump said the US military action against Iran was "about to end", but US and Israeli officials said no internal order to stop the action had been received. The US Central Command warned of possible attacks on Iranian civilian ports, and Iran threatened to retaliate [2] - Energy reserves: The International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 4 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves, the G7 energy ministers supported using reserves to stabilize the energy market, the US would "slightly" cut its reserves, Japan would release about 80 million barrels starting from March 16th, and Germany would release 2.4 million tons of reserves [2] - Security risk of OpenClaw: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued "six do's and six don'ts" suggestions, at least 20 securities firms issued internal compliance reminders, domestic universities warned of risks, and the Suzhou Artificial Intelligence Association issued an initiative for rational use [2] 6. Industry Information - National Supercomputer Internet will distribute 10 million Tokens for free to each OpenClaw user for a limited period of 2 weeks, with a Token renewal price of 0.1 yuan per million Tokens, lower than the market average [2] - The semiconductor market is expected to reach a scale of one trillion US dollars in 2026, and China's share in mainstream semiconductor manufacturing capacity will reach 42% by 2028 [2] - In February, China's automobile sales were 1.805 million, a year - on - year decrease of 15.2%, including new - energy vehicle sales of 765,000, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. Automobile exports were 672,000, a year - on - year increase of 52.4% [2] - The Iran war caused international oil prices to fluctuate sharply, leading Asian airlines to raise ticket prices. Qantas raised international ticket prices by about 5%, and several airlines including Air India and Hong Kong Airlines adjusted fuel surcharges [2]