新能源及有色金属日报：美元指数反弹，压制镍不锈钢价格走势-20260312

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand situation of nickel is weak but in line with expectations. Policy factors are the main driver of nickel price trends. With the dominant nickel ore contraction policy in Indonesia, nickel prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillatory state [1][4]. - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless steel prices. It is expected that stainless steel prices will also maintain a high - level oscillatory state [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai nickel opened at 137,480 yuan/ton and closed at 137,160 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.69% compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 309,179 (-192,726) lots, and the open interest was 210,843 (-681) lots [1]. - Nickel is in a state of game between policy and fundamentals. The Indonesian nickel ore policy continues to ferment, with the 2026 RKAB quota set at 2.5 billion tons, a 34% drop from 3.79 billion tons in 2025, which leads to expectations of future nickel ore supply shortage and supports nickel prices. On the fundamental side, supply production continues to rise, inventories at home and abroad accumulate, and the market supply is sufficient. The consumption of stainless steel after the Spring Festival is poor, and the inventory rebounds significantly, suppressing price rebounds. The production and sales of new energy vehicles meet expectations but are in the off - season, with limited month - on - month improvement [1]. Macro and Cost Factors - Global risk - aversion sentiment has reignited. The US dollar index has rebounded, suppressing the price trends of nickel and stainless steel. The global crude oil supply crisis has led to a resurgence of tension, and the US dollar has strengthened, putting pressure on commodity prices [2]. - Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, international oil prices have soared, driving up ocean freight rates. The transportation cost of Philippine nickel ore has increased significantly, strengthening cost - side support. The ocean freight from the Philippines to major ports in China and Indonesia has generally increased by 5 - 7 US dollars/wet ton. In Indonesia, the domestic trade premium of nickel ore remains high, and the incentive mechanism is diversified [2]. Spot Market - The nickel price declined slightly during the day. The spot premium of Jinchuan resources rebounded slightly, while the premiums and discounts of other brands remained stable. After the nickel price correction, the downstream's willingness to purchase at low prices increased slightly, but overall trading was still cautious. The cost - side support remains solid. The tightening policy of the Indonesian nickel ore RKAB quota continues to ferment, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects sulfur imports, pushing up the production costs of hydrometallurgy and electrowinning nickel [3]. Strategy - The current supply - demand situation is weak but in line with expectations. Policy is the main driver of nickel price trends. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a high - level oscillatory state. The strategy is mainly interval operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On March 11, 2026, the main contract of stainless steel opened at 14,235 yuan/ton and closed at 14,215 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 150,682 (-30,711) lots, and the open interest was 104,928 (-4,171) lots [5]. - The price trend of stainless steel is mainly influenced by nickel prices. On the supply side, the crude steel production schedule in March increased month - on - month, and the supply pressure increased. The operating rate of stainless steel plants remained high, and the production was sufficient. On the consumption side, the consumption after the Spring Festival was poor, and the social inventory continued to accumulate, suppressing price rebounds. Although there are expectations for the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season, short - term demand is difficult to improve significantly [5]. Spot Market - Spot traders' quotations remained stable overall. Downstream terminals mainly made rigid - demand purchases. The previous bullish sentiment has been exhausted, and the willingness to purchase and stock up in advance is insufficient. As the traditional peak season approaches, the basic demand can still be maintained, and practitioners expect that the stainless steel price will still be strongly supported by costs within the month [5]. Strategy - The current price trend is mainly influenced by nickel prices. High costs support the price bottom, but the loose supply and increasing inventory will suppress the upward space of stainless steel prices. It is expected that stainless steel prices will maintain a high - level oscillatory state. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [6].