碳酸锂盘面走低，市场多空因素并存

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The lithium carbonate market has both long and short factors, and the market sentiment has a significant impact on the futures price. In the short term, the lithium carbonate price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern. The demand for lithium carbonate materials and cell production continues to grow rapidly, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage still needs to be verified. It is recommended to mainly adopt interval operations in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Futures Market: On March 11, 2026, the main contract 2605 of lithium carbonate opened at 164,500 yuan/ton and closed at 155,040 yuan/ton, with a -5.14% change compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 267,346 lots, and the open interest was 330,436 lots, a decrease of 2,081 lots from the previous trading day. The current basis is -980 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 36,739 lots, a decrease of 280 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - Spot Market: According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154,000 - 164,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 151,000 - 160,500 yuan/ton, also an increase of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,240 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is 99,373 tons, a decrease of 720 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, the smelter inventory is 17,476 tons, a decrease of 906 tons; the downstream inventory is 43,757 tons, an increase of 3,736 tons; other inventories are 38,140 tons, a decrease of 3,550 tons. The overall inventory is still in a destocking pattern [1]. Consumption End According to Baichuan data, the production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 16.47% month - on - month, ternary materials increased by 21.45% month - on - month, lithium cobalt oxide increased by 39.53% month - on - month, lithium manganate increased by 6.05% month - on - month, and lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 10.44% month - on - month [2]. Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly wait and see in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: No strategy provided [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [4]. - Spot - futures: No strategy provided [5]. - Options: No strategy provided [5].