地缘局势尚未明朗，关注炼厂原料情况

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Core View - The geopolitical situation is still unclear, and attention should be paid to the raw material situation of refineries. Asphalt prices are affected by geopolitical conflicts, oil prices, and raw material supply. Before the Strait of Hormuz resumes navigation, Middle East crude oil supply remains tight, and domestic asphalt refineries may face raw material shortages if the situation persists [1][2] Market Analysis - On March 11, the closing price of the main BU2604 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,874 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton or 1.07% from the previous day's settlement price. The position was 52,914 lots, down 1,763 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 216,863 lots, down 160,256 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 4,056 - 4,430 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/ton; South China: 3,700 - 4,200 yuan/ton; East China: 3,890 - 3,890 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in East China and Sichuan - Chongqing regions fell slightly, while those in Northeast, North China, and Shandong regions rose. The spot prices in other regions remained generally stable. The tight spot circulation in some areas supported the asphalt spot market atmosphere. After Trump's statement on the cease - fire, the market's expectation of the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict increased. Coupled with the profit - taking behavior of long - position holders after the previous huge increase, oil prices have dropped significantly from the high point, and the cost - side support for asphalt has weakened marginally, causing the futures price to fall. However, there has been no substantial cease - fire between Iran and the US - Israel, the conflict continues, and the navigation in the Strait of Hormuz has not significantly recovered. As of March 11, the number of passing oil tankers remained low. Saudi Arabia and other countries transported some crude oil to Red Sea ports for export through pipelines, which partially compensated for the gap in the strait but could not reverse the overall situation [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] Figures - The report includes figures on various aspects of asphalt, such as spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), futures index and contract closing prices, trading volume and position of futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, regional production), domestic asphalt consumption (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery and social inventories) [4]