郑棉震荡上行，糖价窄幅震荡

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - Cotton: The global cotton market supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. In China, the 25/26 season saw a significant increase in cotton production, but consumption also increased due to expanded yarn spindle capacity. The inventory at the end of the year may be tight, and the domestic new crop has a production reduction expectation, so the medium - to - long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The global sugar market fundamentals are bearish in the short term, but there are potential positive factors in the long - term supply. In China, sugar production is expected to increase this year, and the industry is in the inventory accumulation stage [4] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and domestic demand is expected to improve compared with last year. However, the pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the port inventory is high, so the short - term pulp price may remain at a low level [6][7] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15,515 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan/ton (+1.27%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,483 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,668 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton planting area is 56.345 million mu, the harvest area is 47.376 million mu, the yield per mu is expected to be 64 kg/mu (down 5.5 kg/mu), and the output is expected to be 3.03 million tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The recent escalation of the Middle East conflict brings short - term adjustment and risk - aversion pressure. The US cotton lacks a continuous upward drive in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term prospect is bullish [2] - Domestic: The 25/26 season had a large increase in production, but consumption increased, inventory is being depleted quickly, and the new crop in 26/27 may have a production reduction [2] Strategy Neutral to bullish. Short - term upward trend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference, and focus on new - season planting area reduction and subsidy policy [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,423 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the sugar spot price was 5,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,320 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2] - Guangdong Sugar: As of the end of February 2026, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 4.8961 million tons, sugar production was 0.4967 million tons, and the inventory was 0.2057 million tons [3] Market Analysis - International: The escalation of the Middle East conflict provides indirect support, but the global sugar market fundamentals are bearish in the short term, with potential positive factors in the long term [4] - Domestic: Sugar production in Guangxi decreased year - on - year as of February, but the overall domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the industry is in the inventory accumulation stage [4] Strategy Neutral. The current price increase is mainly due to macro - disturbances and capital promotion, and pay attention to the impact of geopolitical conflicts [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,260 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.31%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,910 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in recent years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026 [6] - Demand: Domestic finished paper production capacity has increased in the past two years, but terminal demand is insufficient. In 2026, the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to improve [6] Strategy Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the short - term pulp price may be in a low - level consolidation [7]