2026年3月12日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260312

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are in a volatile adjustment. The overall CPI in the US in February met expectations, and the impact of oil prices has not been reflected. The inflation expectation has cooled down and the risk appetite has recovered, alleviating the short - term suppression factors for precious metals. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise. The long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged considering multiple factors such as geopolitical risks, anti - inflation needs, de - dollarization, and central bank gold purchases. Silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector trend with greater volatility [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Prices and Changes: For沪金2606, the previous day's closing price was 1153.16, yesterday's closing price was 1155.52, with a rise of 2.36 and a rise rate of 0.20%. For沪金2604, the previous day's closing price was 1150.00, yesterday's closing price was 1151.98, with a rise of 1.98 and a rise rate of 0.17%. For沪银2606, the previous day's closing price was 22758, yesterday's closing price was 22256, with a fall of 502 and a fall rate of - 2.21%. For沪银2604, the previous day's closing price was 22912, yesterday's closing price was 22409, with a fall of 503 and a fall rate of - 2.20% [2]. - Positions and Volumes: The positions of沪金2606,沪金2604,沪银2606, and沪银2604 were 132291, 107728, 204352, and 96028 respectively. The trading volumes were 76828, 179567, 394983, and 103506 respectively [2]. - Spot Premium and Discount: The spot premium and discount of沪金2606,沪金2604,沪银2606, and沪银2604 were - 10.5, - 6.96, - 257, and - 410 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Prices and Changes: The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1145.02, yesterday's closing price was 1150.30, with a rise of 5.28 and a rise rate of 0.46%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold was 5190.10, yesterday's closing price was 5182.88, with a fall of 7.22 and a fall rate of - 0.14%. The previous day's closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 22290, yesterday's closing price was 21999, with a fall of 291 and a fall rate of - 1.31%. The previous day's closing price of London Silver was 88.34, yesterday's closing price was 85.73, with a fall of 2.61 and a fall rate of - 2.96% [2]. - Price Ratios: The current values of沪金2606 - 沪金2604,沪银2606 - 沪银2604, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver were 3.54, - 153.00, 52.29, 1.00, and 1.16 respectively. The previous values were 3.16, - 154.00, 51.37, 1.00, and 1.16 respectively [2]. Inventory - Changes: The current values of上期所黄金库存,上期所白银库存, COMEX黄金库存, and COMEX白银库存 were 104910 kg, 251859 kg, 32720709 troy ounces, and 344541802 troy ounces respectively. The previous values were 104934 kg, 259178 kg, 32720709 troy ounces, and 345310443 troy ounces respectively. The changes were - 24 kg, - 7319 kg, 0 troy ounces, and - 768641 troy ounces respectively [2]. Related Derivatives - Values and Changes: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, 10 - year US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar/Chinese yuan were 99.20, 6775.80, 4.21%, 93.63, and 6.8700 respectively. The previous values were 98.93, 6781.48, 4.15%, 91.40, and 6.8718 respectively. The changes were 0.27, - 5.68, 0.06%, 2.23, and - 0.0018 respectively [2]. - ETF and CFTC Positions: The current values of SPDR Gold ETF holdings, SLV Silver ETF holdings, CFTC speculator net positions (gold), and CFTC speculator net positions (silver) were 1077 tons, 15539 tons, 160145, and 23338 respectively. The previous values were 1074 tons, 15655 tons, 159177, and 22260 respectively. The changes were 4 tons, - 116 tons, 968, and 1078 respectively [2]. Macro News - Trade Investigation: The Trump administration launched a new round of 301 trade investigations on the industrial over - capacity of 16 major trading partners on Wednesday, aiming to re - impose tariff pressure. Another independent investigation on banning the import of goods produced with forced labor is expected to cover at least 60 countries [3]. - Interest Rate Expectation: The US federal funds futures continued to decline, and the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by only 26 basis points this year [3]. - Iraq Oil Port: Iraqi officials said that the oil ports have "completely stopped operating", but the commercial ports remain normal after the tanker attacks. Two oil tankers were attacked in Iraqi territorial waters, resulting in one death and the rescue of 38 crew members [3][5]. - Oil Reserve Release: The 32 member countries of the International Energy Agency agreed to Trump's request to coordinate the release of 400 million barrels of crude oil and refined oil. Trump authorized the release of 172 million barrels of crude oil from the strategic petroleum reserve starting next week, and plans to replenish about 200 million barrels in the next year [4].