主要船司紧急燃油附加费公布，关注3月下半月运价修正情况

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main shipping companies have announced emergency fuel surcharges, and attention should be paid to the freight rate correction in the second half of March. The EFS will increase the valuation of near - month contracts to some extent [1][6]. - For the EC2604 contract approaching delivery, consider the shipping company's price - holding intention and actual price adjustment. Due to high geopolitical risks and weak off - season cargo volume, the contract's volatility will be amplified. It is recommended that investors follow the spot market and operate flexibly [6][7]. - The 6, 7, and 8 - month contracts in the peak season have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's resumption in the first half of the year, relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and relatively high year - on - year growth in the demand side of Asia - Europe trade. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still uncertain, and investors need to respond flexibly [8]. - The strategy is to have no unilateral operation and conduct an arbitrage of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes: Different shipping alliances and companies have different quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes 1400/2240 for WEEK13; HPL's quotes for the second half of March range from 2735 - 4035 dollars/FEU, and 2735/4535 for the first half of April [1]. - Geopolitical situation: Iraqi oil ports are "completely shut down", but commercial ports are operating normally [4]. - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, while in 2027, 2028, and 2029, the annual delivery volume of 17000 + TEU ships exceeds 40 [4]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining 4 weeks of March is 320,700 TEU, and 324,900 TEU in April. There are 8 blank sailings in March and 2 TBNs in April [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: As of March 11, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 60,489.00 lots, and the daily trading volume is 93,131.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts are as follows: EC2604 is 1992.70, EC2605 is 2050.00, EC2606 is 2329.40, EC2607 is 2434.90, EC2608 is 2295.50, EC2609 is 1684.10, EC2610 is 1536.00, and EC2512 is 1838.50 [9]. - Spot prices: On March 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1452 dollars/TEU, SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) is 1940 dollars/FEU, and SCFI (Shanghai - US East) is 2717 dollars/FEU. On March 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1545.46 points, and SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1121.22 points [9]. 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None [10]. - Arbitrage: Go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [10].