20260312申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260312

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices rose 0.16% overnight, with tight concentrate supply and smelting profits at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Copper prices may fluctuate in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season should be monitored [2]. - Zinc prices fell 0.04% overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, with a temporary shortage of concentrate supply, while smelting output continued to grow. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and attention should be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream peak - season demand [2]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - Overnight price change: up 0.16% - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable; automobile production and sales are growing; home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth; the real estate market remains weak. - Price outlook: May fluctuate in the short term. - Key factors to watch: US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand in the peak season [2] - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 100,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 13,049 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 101.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 301,950 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 7,700 tons [2] Zinc - Overnight price change: down 0.04% - Supply situation: Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, with a temporary shortage of concentrate supply, while smelting output continued to grow. - Demand situation: Galvanized sheet inventory is generally high. Infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate is slowing down; automobile production and sales are growing; home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth; the real estate market remains weak. - Price outlook: May follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals. - Key factors to watch: US dollar, smelting output, and downstream peak - season demand [2] - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 24,290 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 135 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,316 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 41.31 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 98,950 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 4,150 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 25,165 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 140 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 3,457 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 26.51 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 452,375 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 2,250 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 136,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 3,260 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 17,720 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 208.29 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 287,088 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 330 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,615 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 190 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,939 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 47.99 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 284,875 tons, and LME inventory daily change was 0 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 392,680 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 200 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 49,905 dollars/ton, LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 98.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 8,015 tons, and LME inventory daily change was - 10 tons [2]